经营压力略有好转,扎实推进“五篇大文章”——2025年中国商业银行展望报告  

The Business Pressure has Slightly Improved,and We Are Solidly Promoting“The Five Major Articles”:2025 China’s Commercial Bank Outlook Report

作　　者：交通银行发展研究部课题组 唐建伟[2] Research Group of Development Research Dept.of BOCOM

机构地区：[1]不详 [2]交通银行发展研究部

出　　处：《新金融》2025年第2期21-32,共12页New Finance

摘　　要：2025年,世界经济将面临“特朗普2.0”冲击,全球经济增长亦受拖累。为积极应对外部冲击,国内逆周期调节力度将加大,预计我国商业银行经营压力略有好转,净利润增速略有提升,生息资产稳步增长,存款形势趋于好转,净息差、中间业务收入降幅有所收窄,资产质量总体稳定。商业银行2025年需要重点关注地方隐性债务资产的承接、存款活期化开启、资管理财类业务复苏等相关机遇,更加主动作为,扎实推进金融“五篇大文章”,努力提升稳利润的水平。In 2025,the world economy will face the impact of“Trump 2.0”and global economic growth will also be dragged down.In order to actively respond to external shocks,the domestic countercyclical adjustment efforts will be increased.It is expected that the operating pressure of commercial banks in China will slightly improve,the growth rate of net profi ts will slightly increase,interest bearing assets will steadily expand,the deposit situation will tend to improve,the decline in net interest margin and intermediate business income will be narrowed,and the overall asset quality will remain stable.Commercial banks need to focus on opportunities such as the acceptance of local hidden debt assets,the opening of deposit demand,and the recovery of asset management and wealth management businesses in 2025.They should take a more proactive approach,solidly promote“The Five Major Articles”of finance,and strive to improve the level of stable profits.

关 键 词：商业银行 生息资产 中间业务收入 资产质量 “五篇大文章” 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]