中国城市生态福利绩效的转移路径预测研究  

A Study on Transfer Path Prediction of Ecological Welfare Performance in Chinese Cities

作　　者：陈年安 CHEN Nian-an(School of Economics,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu,Anhui,233041,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学经济学院,安徽蚌埠233041

出　　处：《新疆师范大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第3期86-96,共11页Journal of Xinjiang Normal University(Natural Sciences Edition)

基　　金：教育部人文社科青年项目(22YJC790121);安徽省自然科学基金项目(2308085QG237)。

摘　　要：本研究关注生态福利绩效(EWP)核算,旨在从总量层面评估地区SDG11的薄弱环节和内部差距,以期推动生态城市规划和管理,提高城市居民的福祉潜力,同时减少对生态环境的不良影响。以中国作为发展中国家的案例,运用SBM-DEA模型衡量中国2011-2021年281个城市的EWP,使用Dagum基尼系数法对城市EWP的时空演变规律以及区域差距进行测算与分析。最后,通过空间Markov链揭示其动态演进特征。研究表明:(1)EWP总体呈现先上升后下降的趋势;(2)中国城市的EWP高值区空间分布格局由西、东地区演化为中、东地区,EWP的总体区域差距呈现出缩小的态势,超变密度是总体区域差距形成的主要因素;(3)各个城市的EWP都具备较高的稳定性,同时还展现出空间正相关的特性,存在“俱乐部趋同”的情况,短期内难以达成跃迁式发展。城市EWP向上或向下转移受到邻域城市的差异化影响。文章将通过对EWP的见解提出建议,以期为政策制定者提出一定参考。This study focuses on the accounting of Ecological Welfare Performance(EWP),aiming to assess the weak links and internal disparities in achieving SDG11 at the aggregate level within regions,thereby promoting ecological urban planning and management,enhancing the potential welfare of urban residents,and simultaneously reducing adverse impacts on the ecological environment.Using China as a case study of a developing country,the SBM-DEA model is employed to measure the EWP of 281 Chinese cities from 2011 to 2021.The Dagum Gini coefficient method is utilized to calculate and analyze the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and regional disparities of urban EWP.Finally,the spatial Markov chain is applied to reveal the dynamic evolution characteristics.The research findings indicate:(1)The overall EWP shows a trend of initial increase followed by a decline;(2)The spatial distribution pattern of high EWP values in Chinese cities has shifted from the western and eastern regions to the central and eastern regions,with the overall regional disparity in EWP showing a narrowing trend,where hypervariable density is the main factor contributing to the overall regional disparity;(3)The EWP of each city exhibits high stability and also demonstrates spatial positive correlation characteristics,with the presence of"club convergence",making leapfrog development difficult to achieve in the short term.The upward or downward transition of urban EWP is influenced by the differential impacts of neighboring cities.The article will offer recommendations based on insights from EWP,aiming to provide certain references for policymakers.

关 键 词：生态福利绩效 SBM-DEA模型 Dagum基尼系数 空间Markov链 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F124.5[经济管理—世界经济]