基于LCA-SEM的违章停车行为影响因素研究  

Integrated Analysis of Illegal Parking Management Using Latent Category and Structural Equation Modeling Combination

作　　者：范奕林 林建新 朱雪超 鲁子淇 FAN Yilin;LIN Jianxin;ZHU Xuechao;LU Ziqi(School of Civil and Transportation Engineering Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Beijing 100044,China;Beijing Traffic Management Bureau Xicheng Transportation Detachment,Beijing 100037,China)

机构地区：[1]北京建筑大学土木与交通工程学院,北京100044 [2]北京市公安局公安交通管理局西城交通支队,北京100037

出　　处：《交通工程》2025年第4期17-26,共10页Journal of Transportation Engineering

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金(21GLB034)。

摘　　要：针对缺乏对驾驶员违章停车行为成因及作用关系深入解析的问题,研究基于北京市广安门地区违章停车时空数据分析,结合区域内路侧停车位使用情况等分析结果,选取16个外显变量并制定调查问卷,基于问卷结果,利用潜在类别分析与结构方程模型(LCA-SEM)组合解析。在潜在类别分析(LCA)将受访驾驶员分为不易违停者、主动违停者、被迫违停者3类后,利用结构方程模型(SEM)分别对主动违停者、被迫违停者违章停车行为影响因素与作用关系进行解析。结果表明:车位情况与停车需求对主动违停者违停行为影响最大,效用值分别为0.45与0.29;车位情况与停车环境对于被动违停者的违章停车行为影响最大,效用值分别为0.32与0.27。研究揭示不同驾驶员类别差异下的违章停车行为的成因及影响因素,为制定精细化违章停车治理策略提供科学依据。The issue of insufficient analysis of the causes and relationships of illegal parking behavior among drivers is addressed in this research.Based on spatiotemporal data of illegal parking in the Guang anmen area of Beijing,along with an analysis of roadside parking space usage,16 manifest variables were selected and a survey was designed.Using the survey results,a combination of Latent Class Analysis(LCA)and Structural Equation Modeling(SEM)was employed.After classifying respondents into three categories—non-illegal parkers,proactive illegal parkers,and forced illegal parkers,using LCA,SEM was used to analyze the factors and relationships affecting illegal parking behavior for each group.The results show that parking space availability and parking demand have the greatest impact on proactive illegal parkers,with utility values of 0.45 and 0.29,respectively.For forced illegal parkers,parking space availability and the parking environment were the most significant factors,with utility values of 0.32 and 0.27,respectively.This research reveals the causes and influencing factors of illegal parking behavior under different driver categories,providing a scientific basis for formulating targeted governance strategies.

关 键 词：城市交通 违章停车行为 潜在类别聚类分析 结构方程 

分 类 号：U491.4[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]