Research on Wind-Solar Complementarity Rate Analysis and Capacity Configuration Based on COPULA-IMOPSO  

作　　者：Caifeng Wen Feifei Xue Hongliang Hao Edwin E.Nyakilla Ning Yang Yongsheng Wang Yuwen Zhang 

机构地区：[1]School of Energy and Power Engineering,Inner Mongolia University of Technology,Hohhot,010080,China [2]Department of New Energy Storage,Peking University Ordos Research Institute of Energy,Ordos,017010,China [3]School of Data Science and Application,Inner Mongolia University of Technology,Hohhot,010080,China

出　　处：《Energy Engineering》2025年第4期1511-1529,共19页能源工程(英文)

基　　金：This work was supported by Inner Mongolia Natural Science Foundation Project and the Optimization of Exergy Efficiency of a Hybrid Energy Storage System with Crossover Control for Wind Power(2023JQ04).

摘　　要：This paper presents a new capacity planning method that utilizes the complementary characteristics of wind and solar power output.It addresses the limitations of relying on a single metric for a comprehensive assessment of complementarity.To enable more accurate predictions of the optimal wind-solar ratio,a comprehensive complementarity rate is proposed,which allows for the optimization of wind-solar capacity based on this measure.Initially,the Clayton Copula function is employed to create a joint probability distribution model for wind and solar power,enabling the calculation of the comprehensive complementarity rate.Following this,a joint planning model is developed to enhance the system’s economy and reliability.The goal is to minimize total costs,load deficit rates,and curtailment rates by applying an ImprovedMulti-Objective Particle SwarmOptimization algorithm(IMOPSO).Results show that when the proportion of wind power reaches 70%,the comprehensive complementarity rate is optimized.This optimization leads to a 14.83%reduction in total costs and a 9.27%decrease in curtailment rates.Compared to existing studies,this paper offers a multidimensional analysis of the relationship between the comprehensive complementarity rate and the optimal wind-solar ratio,thereby improving predictive accuracy and providing a valuable reference for research on the correlation between wind and solar power.

关 键 词：Wind-solar power generation comprehensive complementarity rate wind-solar ratio capacity configuration COPULA-IMOPSO model 

分 类 号：TP3[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]