淮河生态经济带生态产品供需耦合协调的时空演变及影响因素  

Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of the coupling coordination between the supply and demand of ecological products in Huaihe River Ecological Economic Belt

作　　者：张春梅[1,2] 刘传明 徐伟陵[3] 朱家聪 Zhang Chunmei;Liu Chuanming;Xu Weiling;Zhu Jiacong(School of Geography&Planning,Huaiyin Normal University,Huai'an 223300,Jiangsu,China;Key Research Base of Philosophy&Social Sciences of Colleges&Universities in Jiangsu,Research Institute of Huaihe River Eco-economic Belt,Huai'an 223300,Jiangsu,China;School of Civil Engineering,Jiaying University,Meizhou 514015,Guangdong,China)

机构地区：[1]淮阴师范学院地理科学与规划学院,江苏淮安223300 [2]江苏高校哲学社会科学重点研究基地·淮河生态经济带研究院,江苏淮安223300 [3]嘉应大学土木工程学院,广东梅州514015

出　　处：《江苏师范大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第1期1-8,共8页Journal of Jiangsu Normal University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划项目(20YJA630087);广东省科技计划项目(2024A0505050031)。

摘　　要：生态产品的供给和需求影响着区域生态产品的可持续发展.在建立生态产品供给和需求关系的基础上构建评价指标体系,运用耦合协调度模型对淮河生态经济带生态产品供需耦合协调发展进行评价,并运用多元线性回归模型和地理加权回归模型从全局和局部视角揭示其动力机制.结果表明:淮河生态经济带生态产品供给和需求分别呈现逐渐变好和增强趋势;生态产品供需耦合协调度逐渐增大,但地区间差距拉大且呈现淮河下游等级高,而中上游等级低的分异格局;生态产品供需耦合协调发展主要受自然、经济、社会和科技因素的正向作用,且自然、经济和社会因素对淮河下游地区作用较大,而科技因素对淮河中上游地区作用较大;淮河生态经济带生态产品供给和需求若要协调发展,下游地区则要继续控制生态用地转出,并加大生态产品生产的科技投入,而中上游地区则要加强生态环境保护,并推进新型城镇化发展.The supply and demand of ecological products affect the sustainable development of regional ecological products.Based on the relationship between the supply and demand of ecological products,an evaluation index system was constructed,the coupling coordination model was used to evaluate the development of the coupling coordination between the supply and demand of ecological products in Huaihe River Ecological Economic Belt(HREEB),and the multivariate linear regression model and the geographically weighted regression model were employed to reveal the driving mechanisms from both global and local perspectives.The results showed that:the supply and demand of ecological products in HREEB were gradually improving and strengthening,respectively;the degree of coupling coordination between the supply and demand of ecological products was increasing while the gaps among regions were widening,showing a pattern of higher coordination in downstream areas and lower coordination in the middle and upper reaches;the development of the coupling coordination between the supply and demand of ecological products was mainly influenced by natural,economic,social,and technological factors,in which natural,economic,and social factors had a greater impact on the downstream regions while technological factors had a greater effect on the middle and upper reaches;the coordinated development of the supply and demand of ecological products in HREEB required the downstream areas to continue to control the transfer of ecological land and increase the scientific and technological investment in the production of ecological products,and the middle-up stream areas to strengthen ecological environmental protection and promote the development of new urbanization.

关 键 词：生态产品 供需关系 耦合协调度 地理加权回归模型 淮河生态经济带 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理] G127[经济管理—产业经济]