云南省橡胶林空间分布规律研究  

Research on the Spatial Distribution Pattern of Rubber Forests in Yunnan

作　　者：陈昆荣 马晶晶 田波[1] 周会娥[1] 梁日清 CHEN Kunrong;MA Jingjing;TIAN Bo;ZHOU Huie;LIANG Riqing(Ecological Branch,Yunnan Institute of Forests Inventory and Planning,Kunming 650031,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省林业调查规划院生态分院,昆明650031

出　　处：《热带农业科技》2025年第2期91-97,共7页Tropical Agricultural Science & Technology

摘　　要：利用云南省2024年度橡胶林资源现状调查核实数据,建立天然橡胶种植面积与纬度、海拔分布关系的数学模型,在此基础上分析橡胶林种植面积随纬度、海拔变化的总体增减趋势以及各区间的分布规律。结果表明:天然橡胶种植面积总体趋势随纬度增加不断递减,但由于受地理和小气候区因素的影响,在细分的6个纬度区间内呈现出多峰值性递增或递减的特点,23.31°~23.52°纬度段是该因素条件下种植面积由南向北逆向增加的典型代表。种植面积随海拔的变化数据采用高斯函数拟合得到回归模型,海拔值760 m一带是种植面积达到峰值的拐点;在种植面积-海拔回归模型中应用3σ准则,选取标准化残差(ZREi)中所有绝对值大于3的数据作为异常值,发现仅在异常值分布的602~935 m海拔段,每组海拔值对应的种植面积变量呈现正态分布N(1 523,249~2)。在相关性方面,天然橡胶种植的海拔和纬度无紧密的相关性,在影响天然橡胶种植面积规模大小方面,海拔的影响要略强于纬度。Based on the investigation and verification data of rubber forest resources in Yunnan in 2024,the mathematical model of the relationship between natural rubber planting area and latitude and altitude distribution was established.On this basis,the overall increase and decrease trend of rubber forest planting area with latitude and altitude changes and the distribution law in intervals were analyzed.The results show that the overall trend of natural rubber planting area is decreasing with the increase of latitude,but due to the influence of geography and microclimate,it shows the characteristics of multipeak value increase or decrease in six subdivided latitude intervals,and the latitude section of 23.31°~23.52°is a typical representative of the reverse increase of planting area from south to north under this factor.The regression model is obtained by fitting the data of planting area with altitude,and the area with altitude of 760m is the inflection point of planting area reaching its peak.Applying the 3σcriterion in the regression model of planting area-altitude,all the data whose absolute values are greater than 3 in the standardized residual (ZREi) are selected as outliers.It is found that the planting area variables corresponding to each group of altitude values present a normal distribution of N (1 523,249~2) only in the 602~935 m altitude segment of the outlier distribution.In terms of correlation,there is no close correlation between altitude and latitude of natural rubber planting,and altitude has aslightly stronger influence on the scale of natural rubber planting area than latitude.

关 键 词：橡胶林 空间分布 种植面积 纬度 海拔 

分 类 号：S794.1[农业科学—林木遗传育种]