Changes in Cardiovascular Disease Burden in China after Release of the 2011 Chinese Guidelines for Cardiovascular Disease Prevention: A Bayesian Causal Impact Analysis  

作　　者：Zhao Yang Man Ki Kwok Catherine Mary Schooling Jing Liu 

机构地区：[1]Center for Clinical and Epidemiologic Research,Beijing Anzhen Hospital,Capital Medical University,Beijing Institute of Heart,Lung and Blood Vessel Diseases,Beijing,People’s Republic of China [2]School of Public Health,Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine,The University of Hong Kong,Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,People’s Republic of China [3]City University of New York,Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy,New York,USA

出　　处：《Cardiovascular Innovations and Applications》2023年第1期599-610,共12页心血管创新与应用(英文)

摘　　要：Objective:This study aimed to investigate the effects of the 2011 Chinese Society of Cardiology guidelines(2011 CSC guidelines)on the overall and subtype specific cardiovascular disease(CVD)burden in China.Methods:We conducted a Bayesian causal impact analysis to investigate changes in the burden of CVD overall and 13 subcategories,before and after release of the 2011 CSC guidelines,by using publicly available data during 1990–2019.Results:The 2011 CSC guidelines were associated with moderate declines in CVD mortality(5.7%;equivalent to 161 per 100,000)and DALYs(2.9%;1429 per 100,000),but small increases in incidence and prevalence,with an approximately 1-year lagged effect.Similar impact patterns were observed for ischemic stroke,cardiomyopathy and myocarditis,and aortic aneurysm.Release of the 2011 CSC guidelines increased intracerebral hemorrhage incidence,but sharply decreased rheumatic,ischemic,and non-rheumatic valvular heart disease mortality and DALY rates.The burden of other CVD subcategories was unchanged.Health worker numbers,population size,disposable income,hos-pital admission rates,and crude death rates were critical contributors to CVD burden beyond the 2011 CSC guidelines.Conclusion:The 2011 CSC guidelines decreased the burden of CVD and several subcategories.However,efforts to enhance health promotion and strengthen healthcare remain urgently needed in China.

关 键 词：2011 CSC guidelines cardiovascular disease burden causal impact 

分 类 号：R54[医药卫生—心血管疾病]