基于系统动力学模型的智慧真空系泊技术推广应用分析  

Analysis of popularization and application of intelligent vacuum mooring technology based on system dynamics model

作　　者：蒋军[1] 周春旭 付晓娜 JIANG Jun;ZHOU Chun-xu;FU Xiao-na(School of Traffic&Transportation,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China;Chongqing Dazu District Transportation Committee,Chongqing 402360,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学交通运输学院,重庆400074 [2]重庆市大足区交通运输委员会,重庆402360

出　　处：《中国港湾建设》2025年第3期17-23,共7页China Harbour Engineering

基　　金：重庆市教育委员会人文社科项目(23SKGH141);重庆市自然科学基金面上项目(CSTB2024NSCQ-MSX1186);重庆市研究生联合培养基地(JDLHPYJD2022002);重庆交通大学研究生科学创新项目(2023S0056)。

摘　　要：为加快推进智慧港口建设,助推航运业绿色可持续发展,构建了以政府、港口企业和航运公司三方主体参与的演化博弈模型,研究各方在博弈过程中的策略选择。在该博弈模型的基础上建立了演化博弈系统动力学模型,对不同情景下主体参与的演化情况及策略的稳定性进行了仿真分析。结果表明:政府、港口企业和航运公司的策略抉择呈相互促进的关系,政府在博弈系统中起主导作用,政府补贴监管力度的增加能够有效降低港口企业的投资风险和管控航运公司的决策行为,从而促使博弈系统加速收敛至积极投资使用智慧真空系泊装置的理想稳定状态,但过高的监管成本会抑制政府的实施意愿,所以三方主体应加强合作共同减少监管成本以促进智慧真空系泊装置的发展。In order to accelerate the construction of smart ports and promote the green and sustainable development of theshipping industry,an evolutionary game model with the participation of the government,port enterprises and shippingcompanies is constructed to study the strategy selection of each party in the game process.Then an evolutionary game systemdynamics model was established on the basis of this game model,and simulation analysis was carried out on the evolution of themain players and the stability of the strategies under different scenarios.The results show that the strategic choices of thegovernment,port enterprises,and shipping companies are mutually reinforcing,and the government plays a dominant role in thegame system.The increase of government subsidy and regulation can effectively reduce the investment risk of port enterprisesand control the decision-making behaviour of shipping companies,thus accelerating the convergence of the game system to theideal stable state of actively investing in the use of intelligent vacuum moorings,but the high cost of regulation will inhibit thegovernment′s willingness to implement.Therefore,the three parties should strengthen cooperation to reduce regulatory costs topromote the development of smart vacuum mooring devices.

关 键 词：智慧港口 智慧系泊 演化博弈 系统动力学 低碳 

分 类 号：U651[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程] F552[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]