2018—2023年淄博市丙型肝炎流行特征和时空聚集性分析  

Analysis of the epidemic characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of hepatitis C in Zibo City, 2018-2023

作　　者：张斯娜 巩翠华 边文建 韩美辰 ZHANG Sina;GONG Cuihua;BIAN Wenjian;HAN Meichen(Zibo Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Zibo,Shandong 255026,China)

机构地区：[1]淄博市疾病预防控制中心,山东淄博255026

出　　处：《华南预防医学》2025年第2期164-168,共5页South China Journal of Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的 分析2018—2023年淄博市丙型病毒性肝炎(丙肝)的流行特征,同时探讨淄博市乡镇(街道)层面丙肝聚集性分布情况,为丙肝防控工作提供科学依据。方法 收集2018—2023年淄博市丙肝病例报告数据,采用描述性流行病学方法分析其三间分布特征,并进行空间自相关分析和时空扫描分析。结果 2018—2023年淄博市累计报告1 130例丙肝病例,年平均报告发病率为4.28/10万。男女比为1.32∶1,农民、家务及待业人员、离退休人员合计占78.94%。空间自相关分析显示,2018—2020年和2023年淄博市Moran′s I值分别为0.203、0.205、0.210和0.115(P<0.05或P<0.01),热点聚集区域分布在淄川区、桓台县、沂源县、临淄区、博山区和周村区所辖乡镇(街道)。时空聚集性分析结果显示,2018—2023年均有1~2个时空聚集区域,聚集时间各有不同,2022和2023年主要聚集区域类似,丙肝高发的地区主要集中在淄川区、桓台县和沂源县。结论 淄博市的丙型肝炎发病率在特定人群和时空上有明显的聚集现象。需特别关注男性、中老年人、农村居民以及淄川区、桓台县、沂源县及周边地区丙肝疫情情况。Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics of hepatitis C in Zibo City from 2018 to 2023 and explore the distribution of hepatitis C clusters at the township(street)level in order to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of hepatitis C.Methods Data on reported cases of hepatitis C in Zibo City from 2018 to 2023 were collected.Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the temporal,spatial,and demographic characteristics.Spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatiotemporal scanning analysis were also conducted.Results A total of 1130 cases of hepatitis C were reported in Zibo City from 2018 to 2023,with an average annual reported incidence rate of 4.28 per 100000.The male-to-female ratio was 1.32∶1,and farmers,household workers,unemployed individuals,and retirees accounted for a total of 78.94%of cases.Spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed significant clustering with Moran's I values from 2018 to 2020 and 2023 being 0.203,0.205,0.210,and 0.115(P<0.05 or P<0.01).Hot spots were identified in townships(streets)within Zichuan District,Huantai County,Yiyuan County,Linzi District,Boshan District,and Zhoucun District.The results of spatiotemporal aggregation analysis showed that from 2018 to 2023,there were 1 to 2 spatiotemporal aggregation regions with different aggregation times.In 2022 and 2023,the main aggregation regions were similar,and the regions with high incidence of hepatitis C were mainly concentrated in Zichuan District,Huantai County,and Yiyuan County.Conclusions The incidence of hepatitis C in Zibo City shows clear clustering within specific populations and at particular times and locations.It is important to pay special attention to males,middle-aged and elderly individuals,rural residents,as well as the hepatitis C epidemic situation in Zichuan District,Huantai County,Yiyuan County,and surrounding regions.

关 键 词：丙型病毒性肝炎 流行特征 空间自相关 时空聚集性 

分 类 号：R183.9[医药卫生—流行病学]