基于Joinpoint回归模型的2010—2023年山东省东营市其他感染性腹泻流行趋势分析  

Analysis of the epidemiological trend of other infectious diarrhea in Dongying City,Shandong Province from 2010 to 2023 based on the Joinpoint regression model

作　　者：王华丽[1] 马晓瑜 李静[1] 郭慕真 WANG Huali;MA Xiaoyu;LI Jing;GUO Muzhen(Dongying Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Dongying,Shandong 257091,China)

机构地区：[1]东营市疾病预防控制中心,山东东营257091

出　　处：《华南预防医学》2025年第2期169-173,共5页South China Journal of Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的 了解东营市2010—2023年其他感染性腹泻病(other infectious diarrhea diseases,OID)流行趋势,为科学制定防控措施提供依据。方法 自中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集东营市2010—2023年OID病例监测数据,建立Joinpoint回归模型对OID流行趋势进行分析。结果 2010—2023年东营市共报告OID 40 973例,年均报告发病率136.86/10万。男女发病率性别比为1.28∶1.00,男性发病率高于女性(P<0.01)。各年龄组均有病例报告,以0~<20岁为主,共报告17 907例(43.70%)。发病呈夏季和冬季双峰分布特征,6—8月为夏季主高峰,12月至次年1月为冬季高峰。Joinpoint回归分析结果显示,2010—2023年东营市OID报告发病率总体呈上升趋势(AAPC=7.19%,P<0.05),男性总体上升趋势无统计学意义(P>0.05),女性总体呈上升趋势(P<0.05),0~<1岁组总体呈缓慢下降趋势(P<0.05),1~<5、5~<10、10~<15、20~<25、25~<30、40~<45、50~<55、60~<65、65~<70、75~<80和80~99岁组总体呈上升趋势(P<0.05或P<0.01)。结论 2010—2023年东营市OID总体仍处于高位流行水平,应关注0~<20岁群体,把控好季节关键期,积极采取针对性防控措施。Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and secular trend of other infectious diarrhea(OID)in Dongying City from 2010 to 2023,and provide evidence for OID control and prevention.Methods Through the China Disease Control and Prevention Information System,the data of OID surveillance in Dongying City from 2010 to 2023 was collected.Joinpoint regression model was established to analyze the epidemiological trend of OID.Results A total of 40973 cases of OID were reported in Dongying City during 2010-2023,and the annual reported incidence rate was 136.86/100000.The incidence rate was higher in males than in females(P<0.01),and the incidence ratio of male to female was 1.28:1.00.Cases were reported in all age groups,mainly under 20 years old,with a total of 17907 cases reported(43.70%).There were two incidence peaks for OID,from June to August in summer and December to January of the following year in winter.Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the reported incidence rate of OID in Dongying City showed an overall upward trend from 2010 to 2023(AAPC=7.19%,P<0.05),males showed an overall upward trend but without statistical significance(P>0.05),while females showed an overall upward trend with statistical significance(P<0.05).The age group of 0-<1 showed an overall slowly downward trend(P<0.05),while the age groups of 1-<5,5-<10,10-<15,20-<25,25-<30,40-<45,50-<55,60-<65,65-<70,75-<80,and 80-99 showed an overall upward trend(P<0.05 or P<0.01).Conclusions The incidence of OID in Dongying City from 2010 to 2023 was still at a high level.It is imperative to pay attention to the age group of 0-<20 years old and control the key seasonal periods,and actively take targeted prevention and control strategies for OID.

关 键 词：其他感染性腹泻 Joinpoint回归分析 流行趋势 

分 类 号：R183.4[医药卫生—流行病学]