基于DEMATEL-ISM-BN的重大建设工程技术创新成果转化风险预警模型  

Risk early warning model of technological innovation achievements transformation in major construction projects based on DEMATEL-ISM-BN

作　　者：王青娥[1] 荆浩飞 郭珍旭 王朝静 WANG Qing’e;JING Haofei;GUO Zhenxu;WANG Zhaojing(School of Civil Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410075,China;School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]中南大学土木工程学院,湖南长沙410075 [2]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044

出　　处：《铁道科学与工程学报》2025年第3期1315-1327,共13页Journal of Railway Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72171237);国家自然科学基金专项资助项目(71942006)。

摘　　要：为有效防范化解重大建设工程技术创新成果转化风险,推动创新成果转化为现实生产力,基于DEMATEL-ISM-BN系统地剖析重大建设工程技术创新成果转化风险因素,并构建风险预警模型。首先基于扎根理论,遵循“开放性编码—主轴编码—选择性编码”的流程,识别出21项风险因素并将其归纳为技术风险、管理风险、资源风险、效益风险。其次应用DEMATEL法辨析以上风险因素的属性、重要性及其相互影响程度,并通过ISM构建一个6级3阶的有向递接模型,以揭示风险因素间的作用路径。然后将ISM模型转化为贝叶斯网络拓扑结构,应用三角模糊数和DUOWA算子思想计算根节点先验概率,引入Noisy-orgate模型确定条件概率表,应用贝叶斯网络因果推理方法预测风险发生概率,利用逆向推理、敏感性分析和最大致因链分析等功能实现对风险事件发生诱因的实时诊断。最后选取典型案例并对风险预警模型进行仿真分析。仿真分析结果显示,所构建的重大建设工程技术创新成果转化风险预警模型具有良好的适用性,自膨胀吸能吸波抗岩爆支护技术尚未达到试验段试验标准,其中成果转化组织网络不健全、知识产权机制不健全为导致该风险事件发生的关键风险因素。研究结果将重大建设工程技术创新成果转化风险的研究推向了新高度,为相关领域的风险管理提供了借鉴与指导。To effectively prevent and mitigate the risks associated with the transformation of major construction engineering technological innovation achievements,and to promote the conversion of these innovation achievements into actual productivity,this study systematically analyzed the risk factors using the DEMATELISM-BN system and developed a risk warning model.First,this article utilized grounded theory,following the process of“open coding—axial coding—selective coding”to identify 21 risk factors and summarize them into technical risk,management risk,resource risk and benefit risk.Then,employing the DEMATEL method,this article assessed the attributes,importance,and interrelationships of these risk factors.Using Interpretive Structural Modeling,this article constructed a 6-level,3-tier directed adjacency model to elucidate the interaction pathways among the risk factors.Next,this article converted the ISM model into a Bayesian Network topology.This article calculated the prior probabilities of root nodes using triangular fuzzy numbers and the DUOWA operator,and established the conditional probability table using the Noisy-or gate model.Bayesian network causal reasoning was then applied to predict the likelihood of risk occurrence,and features such as reverse reasoning,sensitivity analysis,and maximum causality chain analysis were used for real-time diagnosis of risk event causes.Finally,this article selected a typical case to simulate and analyze the risk warning model.The simulation results demonstrated that the constructed risk early warning model for the transformation of major construction engineering technological innovations is highly applicable.The self-expanding energy-absorbing and wave-absorbing rockburst-resistant support technology has not yet met the test section standards,with incomplete organizational networks for transformation and inadequate intellectual property mechanisms identified as key risk factors leading to this risk event.The findings elevate the research on the risks of transforming

关 键 词：重大建设工程 技术创新 成果转化 风险预警 DEMATEL-ISM-BN 仿真分析 

分 类 号：F530.3[经济管理—产业经济]