金沙江流域泥石流危险性评价  

Hazard assessment of debris flow in Jinsha River

作　　者：孙聿卿 葛永刚[1] 陈兴长[3] 曾璐[1] 梁馨月 冯鑫 SUN Yuqing;GE Yonggang;CHEN Xingzhang;ZENG Lu;LIANG Xinyue;FENG Xin(Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process,Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS),Chengdu 610299,Sichuan,China;University of Chinese Academy Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;School of Environment and Resource,Southwest University of Science and Technology,Mianyang 621000,Sichuan,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室/中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,四川成都610299 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]西南科技大学环境与资源学院,四川绵阳621000

出　　处：《地质通报》2025年第2期377-391,共15页Geological Bulletin of China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目《金沙江上游地区构造控制型大滑坡发育特征及易发性定量评价方法》(批准号:42001012);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究《重大泥石流灾害及风险专题》(编号:2019QZKK0902)。

摘　　要：【研究目的】查明金沙江流域泥石流空间分布特征并开展危险性评价,可以为横断山区泥石流区域分异规律研究和防灾减灾提供数据支撑和科学依据。【研究方法】结合野外调查和GIS空间分析,获得了金沙江流域干流及主要支流的2551个泥石流流域,并基于泥石流活动特征开展泥石流危险性评价,通过ROC检验及空间聚类分析,完成了金沙江流域泥石流危险性区划。【研究结果】①金沙江流域上游段泥石流并不活跃,以低中频为主,高频泥石流主要分布在下游段,尤以元谋—巧家段发育最为集中;②最有利于泥石流灾害形成的因素为:15°~35°坡度、地震分布最密集、软硬相间的碎屑岩组;③金沙江流域内中—高危险泥石流占比为47.48%,接近一半;④东川—巧家段的高危险区聚集度高,与活跃断层高度重合,物源丰富,基本受活跃断层控制。【结论】金沙江流域泥石流高危险区集中在下游段,研究获得的危险性区划图可为水力水电、交通廊道等工程开发建设中规避泥石流风险、制定防灾减灾措施提供参考依据。[Objective]This study investigates the distribution characteristics of debris flow in Jinsha River and conducts a hazard assessment to provide data support and a scientific basis for understanding regional variations in debris flow and disaster prevention in the Hengduan Mountain area.[Methods]Based on the field investigation and GIS spatial analysis,2551 debris flows in the Jinsha River were identified.Hazard assessment was performed based on the activity characteristics of these debris flows.Using ROC analysis and spatial clustering,the debris flow hazard zoning in the Jinsha River was established.[Results]①Debris flows in the upper reaches of Jinsha River are not active,predominantly of low to medium frequency,while high-frequency debris flows are concentrated in the lower reaches,especially between Yarmou and Qiaojia.②The primary factors influencing debris flow formation include slopes ranging from 15°to 35°,frequent seismic activity,and the presence of both soft and hard clastic rocks.③Medium-and high-hazard debris flows cover 47.48% of the area,nearly half of the studied region.④The high-hazard zone in the Dongchuan-Qiaojia section shows high concentration,closely correlating with active faults and abundant sediment supply,largely controlled by tectonic activity.[Conclusions]High-hazard debris flow zones are concentrated in the downstream of Jinsha River.The hazard zoning map provides a reference for risk mitigation in hydropower development and transportation infrastructure planning.

关 键 词：泥石流 危险性 活动特征 金沙江流域 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学]