基于台区线损状态识别的通用线损率概率密度分布模型  

General probability density distribution model for line loss based on state identification in power distribution area

作　　者：汪颖[1] 李有煜 汪清 张华赢 马晓阳[1] 肖先勇[1] WANG Ying;LI Youyu;WANG Qing;ZHANG Huaying;MA Xiaoyang;XIAO Xianyong(College of Electrical Engineering,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China;New Smart City High Quality Power Supply Joint Laboratory of China Southern Power Grid Company Limited(Shenzhen Power Supply Co.,Ltd.),Shenzhen 518020,China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学电气工程学院,四川成都610065 [2]南方电网公司新型智慧城市高品质供电联合实验室(深圳供电局有限公司),广东深圳518020

出　　处：《供用电》2025年第4期80-90,98,共12页Distribution & Utilization

基　　金：中国南方电网有限责任公司科技项目(090000KK52222153/SZKJXM20222151)。

摘　　要：降低配电网的实质性线损是一个关键问题,而建立一个描述线损特征的模型是开展针对性降损决策的前提,基于此,提出一种基于配电台区线损状态识别的通用线损率概率密度分布模型。首先,提出了一种基于C-vine Copula模型的线损状态识别方法,克服了现有模型在计算线损时由于忽略不同线损特征导致准确率较低的问题。然后,基于概率密度分布函数优选方法和模型参数估计方法,提出了一种通用线损率概率密度分布模型,以反映台区不同线损状态下的不同线损分布特征。最后,利用西南某配电台区近两年的实测数据,验证了该方法的准确性和有效性。It is crucial to reduce the substantial line loss in distribution networks in power utility.It is the premise to develop a model to describe the loss characteristics that constitute the targeted and comprehensive loss mitigation decision.In this study,a general line loss probability density distribution model is proposed based on state identification in the power distribution area.Firstly,a line loss state identification method based on the C-vine Copula model is proposed to overcome the low accuracy of the existing models caused by ignoring the different characteristics of the different states when calculating the loss.Secondly,a general line loss rate probability density distribution model,including the optimal selection of the probability density function and parameter estimation of the proposed model,is presented to reflect different loss distribution characteristics under different line loss states of the power distribution area.Finally,the accuracy and validity of the proposed method is verified using the measured data across two years of a power distribution area in southwest China.

关 键 词：配电台区 线路损耗 C-vine Copula模型 概率密度分布函数 状态识别 

分 类 号：TM71[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]