农业生产服务外包行为选择发生路径分析——基于Probit-ISM模型  

Path Analysis of Behavioral Choices for Outsourcing Agricultural Production Services——Based on Probit-ISM Modeling

作　　者：安甜甜 刘帅[1] AN Tian-tian;LIU Shuai(College of Economics and Management,Jilin Agricultural University/Center for Rural Economic in Major Grain Producing Areas,Jilin Agricultural University,Changchun 130118,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林农业大学经济管理学院/吉林农业大学粮食主产区农村经济研究中心,长春130118

出　　处：《玉米科学》2025年第3期117-126,共10页Journal of Maize Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“玉米收储政策改革的效率检视、目标评估与政策优化研究”(20BJY147);吉林省社会科学基金重大项目“吉林省黑土地保护主体行为与激励政策研究”(2023ZD14)。

摘　　要：农业生产服务外包有效缓解了城镇化建设加快、农村劳动力转移导致的出现土地撂荒等局面,在帮助农民改善民生问题、提高生产效率以及生活质量等方面具有重要的作用。本文基于吉林省长春市、四平市、吉林市等地区的玉米种植户为研究对象,构建二元Probit-ISM模型确定玉米种植户农业生产服务外包影响因素及其关联性与层级关系。路径回归结果表明,农业生产效率、各环节外包服务费用、玉米生产者补贴为影响外包意愿的表层直接因素;种植规模、耕地、播种、收获、年龄、健康状况、受教育年限、是否加入合作社、是否参加种植培训、外包服务水平、农业收入占比为影响外包意愿的中间间接因素;细碎化程度为影响外包意愿的深层根源因素。结合发生机制归纳为两个路径,基于此,为提高农户购买外包服务意愿提出针对性建议。The outsourcing of agricultural production services has effectively alleviated the accelerated urban⁃ization construction and the situation of large-scale land abandonment caused by the transfer of rural labor.It plays an important role in helping farmers improve their livelihood,production efficiency,and quality of life.This study fo⁃cuses on corn growers in Changchun,Siping,Jilin,and other areas of Jilin Province,constructing a binary Probit ISM model to determine the influencing factors,correlation,and hierarchical relationship of agricultural production service outsourcing for corn growers.The path regression results indicate that agricultural production efficiency,out⁃sourcing service fees for various links,and corn producer subsidies are the surface direct factors that affect outsourc⁃ing willingness,while planting scale,cultivated land,sowing,harvest,age,health status,education years,whether to join cooperatives,whether to participate in planting training,outsourcing service level,and agricultural income pro⁃portion are the intermediate indirect factors that affect outsourcing willingness.The degree of fragmentation is a deep-seated root factor that affects the willingness to outsource.The analysis concludes with two main pathways and proposes targeted recommendations to enhance farmers’willingness to purchase outsourcing services.

关 键 词：玉米 农业生产服务外包 影响因素 Probit-ISM模型 

分 类 号：S513[农业科学—作物学]