高钢级管道环焊缝可靠性计算方法与敏感性因素分析  

Reliability calculation method and sensitivity factors of girth welds in highgrade steel pipelines

作　　者：邵佳 刘啸奔 张晗 陈健 陈朋超 燕冰川 孙晁 付孟楷 SHAO Jia;LIU Xiaoben;ZHANG Han;CHEN Jian;CHEN Pengchao;YAN Bingchuan;SUN Chao;FU Mengkai(National Engineering Research Center for Pipeline Safety,China University of Petroleum(Beijing)//MOE Key Laboratory of Petroleum Engineering//Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Oil and Gas Distribution Technology;PipeChina Institute of Science and Technology;PipeChina North Pipeline Co.,Ltd.)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)·油气管道输送安全国家工程研究中心·石油工程教育部重点实验室·城市油气输配技术北京市重点实验室 [2]国家管网集团科学技术研究总院分公司 [3]国家管网集团北方管道有限责任公司

出　　处：《油气储运》2025年第3期280-288,共9页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目“中俄管道重大风险防控与安全保障关键技术”,2022YFC3070100;应急管理部重点科技计划资助项目“油气管网系统环境安全重大风险防控关键技术研究”,2024EMST090903;北京市科协“青年人才托举工程”项目“高钢级管道环焊缝可靠性评价方法研究”,BYESS2023261。

摘　　要：【目的】环焊缝失效是高钢级管道本质安全的主要威胁,随着中国管道建设与运维的数字化水平不断提升,逐渐形成适用于中国高钢级管道的基础参数统计数据库,为管道环焊缝可靠性分析提供了重要数据支持。基于真实工况数据统计结果,深入开展含裂纹缺陷的高钢级管道环焊缝可靠性分析,以期为管道安全评估提供更加精确的理论依据。【方法】为克服传统单一因素确定性设计与评价方法的保守性,建立了针对含裂纹缺陷的高钢级管道环焊缝可靠性分析模型,采用极大似然估计法,对中俄东线天然气管道工程现场机械性能抽检资料中的管材、焊材数据开展参数估计与K-S检验确定输入分布;针对管道大应变载荷条件,优选改进的PRCI-CRES极限拉伸应变预测公式以准确构建基于应变的极限状态方程;为解决传统MC(Monte Carlo)法随机抽样模式的低效率问题,采用了基于哈密顿蒙特卡洛子集模拟法(HMC-SS)的高效抽样策略,有效优化了传统可靠性分析过程;为全面评估环焊缝各参数对结构失效的影响度,采用Sobol全局敏感性分析方法进行环焊缝参数敏感性分析,量化主要影响因素敏感程度。【结果】采用HMC-SS方法计算结果的相对误差低至0.90%,模型计算效率提升99.70%;在大应变条件下,影响高钢级管道环焊缝区域失效的最敏感因素为强度匹配系数,其敏感程度远大于其他参数,总效应指数ST为1.09、一阶影响指数S1为0.951。【结论】在材料加工过程中应着重保证焊材与母材等强或高强匹配;从二阶影响指数结果来看,基于可靠性的参数设计能够有效考虑到各参数间共同作用,从全局角度保证管道设计的安全性。[Objective]Girth weld failures pose a significant threat to the intrinsic safety of high-grade steel pipelines.With the ongoing digitalization of pipeline construction and operation and maintenance in China,a statistical database of basic parameters applicable to highgrade steel pipelines has been established gradually.This database provides critical data support for the reliability analysis of girth welds in these pipelines.Based on statistical results obtained under real-world pipeline conditions,an in-depth reliability analysis was conducted on girth welds in high-grade steel pipelines that contain crack defects,aiming to offer a more accurate theoretical foundation for the safety evaluation of pipelines.[Methods]To overcome the conservative tendencies of traditional single-factor deterministic design and evaluation methods,a reliability analysis model was established for girth welds in high-grade steel pipelines exhibiting crack defects.Using the maximum likelihood estimation method,parameter estimations and Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S)tests were performed on the data of pipes and welding materials sourced from field sampling inspections on mechanical properties for the China−Russia East-route Natural GasPipeline, which helped identify input distributions. Considering the large strain loading conditions of the pipeline, an improved PRCI-CRESultimate tensile strain prediction formula was chosen, aimed at accurately formulating the strain-based limit state equation. To enhance theefficiency of traditional Monte Carlo (MC) random sampling methods, an efficient sampling strategy based on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo-Subset Simulation (HMC-SS) was introduced, effectively optimizing the reliability analysis process. Additionally, the Sobol globalsensitivity analysis method was employed to comprehensively evaluate the influence of each parameter of girth welds on structural failures,which allows for quantifying the sensitivity of the main influencing factors. [Results] The results obtained using the HMC-SS methodshowed rela

关 键 词：环焊缝可靠性 裂纹失效 蒙特卡洛模拟方法 子集模拟方法 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：TE832[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]