中国中长期天然气干线管网规划布局方法  

The methodology for medium-and long-term planning of natural gas trunk pipeline network in China

作　　者：周大可 杨嘉 刘伟 周美领 陈希 张峰 张也 赵洋 ZHOU Dake;YANG Jia;LIU Wei;ZHOU Meiling;CHEN Xi;ZHANG Feng;ZHANG Ye;ZHAO Yang(PipeChina Engineering Technology Innovation Co.,Ltd.)

机构地区：[1]国家管网集团工程技术创新有限公司

出　　处：《油气储运》2025年第3期301-310,共10页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

基　　金：国家管网集团科学研究与技术开发项目“全国天然气管网决策支持平台关键模型研发”,SJSGCXGS202301。

摘　　要：【目的】“双碳”目标下,中国天然气需求在2040年前仍将保持较快增长速度,天然气管网规模将进一步扩大。以往天然气管网规划布局侧重局部资源与市场点对点匹配,对于全国市场需求分布与资源统筹优化配置考虑不足,难以适应“全国一张网”背景下的天然气管网规划、建设与运营,因此需建立科学、系统的方法体系,为“十五·五”与远期天然气干线管网规划布局提供参考。【方法】基于全国资源市场空间分布与已建天然气干线管网布局特征,构建“区域+通道”模式的干线管网简化模型;建立以最小周转量为优化目标,以管输能力为约束的流向流量分析方法,采用GLPK(GNU Linear Programming Kit)求解器求解各通道负荷率,基于N-1原则提出各通道负荷率上限并识别通道瓶颈;结合通道瓶颈提出多个可行的规划布局方案,建立由建设投资等因素构成的综合评价指标体系,以综合成本最低为导向确定最优规划布局方案。【结果】基于2040年天然气供需预测数据开展流向流量分析,识别出已建天然气干线管网主要存在4个瓶颈,提出3种可行的规划布局方案,通过综合比选确定未来中国需要在Ⅰ、Ⅲ、Ⅵ、Ⅷ等通道进行规划布局。【结论】通过建立“区域+通道”模式的干线管网简化模型能够聚焦天然气资源配置核心问题,为优化管网输送方案提供支撑;构建基于N-1原则的瓶颈识别准则与以综合成本为导向的综合比选方法为规划布局提供了主要依据,进而建立了一套科学、系统的天然气管网规划布局方法体系。该体系能够实现在保障国家能源安全与民生用气需求的前提下,发挥有效投资的关键作用,降低管网运行能耗,为中长期天然气干线管网规划与建设决策提供参考。[Objective]In light of the“carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”goals,China’s natural gas demand is expected to grow rapidly until 2040,necessitating an expansion of the natural gas pipeline network.Traditionally,the layout of natural gas pipeline network has focused on point-to-point local matching between resources and markets,neglecting the distribution of national market demand and overall resource allocation optimization.This approach is inadequate for the planning,construction,and operation of“one pipeline network nationwide”.Therefore,a scientific and systematic methodology must be established to guide the planning and layout of the natural gas trunk pipeline network during the“15th Five-Year Plan”period and beyond.[Methods]A simplified“zone+channel”model of the trunk pipeline network was developed based on the spatial distribution of national resource markets and the characteristics of the existing natural gas trunk pipeline network.A flow direction and volume analysis method was established,taking the minimum turnover as the optimization objective and the pipeline throughput as the constraint.The GNU Linear Programming Kit(GLPK)solver was employed to calculate the load rate of each channel.Utilizing the principle of N−1,the maximum load rate for each channel was established,enabling the identification of bottlenecks.Based on these bottlenecks,several feasible planning and layout schemes were proposed.A comprehensive evaluation index system,incorporating construction investment,operational energy consumption,and other factors,was developed to determine the optimalplanning and layout scheme based on minimizing overall costs.[Results]Based on the projected natural gas supply and demand data for2040,the analysis of flow direction and volume identified four main bottlenecks in the existing natural gas trunk pipeline network,leading tothe proposal of three feasible planning and layout schemes.The comprehensive comparison determined that China should plan for channelsⅠ,Ⅲ,Ⅵ,andⅧin the

关 键 词：天然气 干线管网 拓扑模型 流向流量 瓶颈分析 综合评价 规划布局 

分 类 号：TE832[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]