黄海北部大浪发生的随机点过程模型研究  

Study on stochastic point process model of large waves in the northern Yellow Sea

作　　者：郝甫奇 类淑河[1] 董胜[2] HAO Fuqi;LEI Shuhe;DONG Sheng(College of Mathematical Science,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;College of Engineering,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学数学科学学院,山东青岛266100 [2]中国海洋大学工程学院,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《海洋湖沼通报(中英文)》2025年第1期16-23,共8页Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委员会-山东省人民政府联合基金项目(U1706226)。

摘　　要：利用随机点过程方法对30 a(1988—2017年)黄海北部有效波高在2.5~4.0 m的大浪过程进行统计分析,得出黄海北部11月到翌年4月冷空气气旋浪和寒潮浪的统计规律,并对该时段内大浪过程的发生次数做了参数估计,利用复合极值分布计算了该时段内100 a一遇和50 a一遇波高重现值。结果表明,黄海北部11月到翌年4月的有效波高在2.5~4.0 m的大浪过程为齐次泊松过程,100 a一遇极值波高约8.0 m,研究结果可以为黄海北部地区海浪灾害的研究和海上建筑物的工程设计提供参考。Using the random point process method,this paper made a statistical analysis of the large wave process in the northern Yellow Sea with an effective wave heights of 2.5 m~4.0 m in 30 years(1988-2017),and obtained the statistical laws of cold air cyclone waves and cold wave waves in the northern Yellow Sea from November to next April,and estimated the number of large wave processes in this period.Using the compound extreme value distribution,the represent value of wave heights for 100A and 50A return periods in this period was calculated.The results showed that the large wave process with an effective wave height of 2.5~4.0 m in the northern Yellow Sea from November to next April was a homogeneous Poisson process,and the extreme wave heights of 100 year return period was about 8.0 m.The research results can provide reference for the research of wave disaster and the engineering design of offshore buildings in the northern Yellow Sea.

关 键 词：黄海 大浪过程 随机点过程 BDS检验 重现值 

分 类 号：P731.33[天文地球—海洋科学] P751[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]