淮安市工业碳排放核算及碳达峰分析  

Industrial Carbon Emission Accounting and Carbon Peak Analysis in Huai'an

作　　者：吴鑫宇 林树生 孙松 蔡奕 WU Xin-yu;LIN Shu-sheng;SUN Song;CAI Yi(Jiangsu Huaian Environmental Monitoring Center,Huai'an Jiangsu 223300,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省淮安环境监测中心,江苏淮安223300

出　　处：《中国环保产业》2025年第2期58-62,共5页China Environmental Protection Industry

基　　金：江苏省生态环境厅2024年第二批环境热点问题前瞻性调查评估项目(2024204)。

摘　　要：在能耗双控向碳排放双控全面转型、约束性指标由能耗强度降低变为碳排放强度降低的新时期,本文基于淮安市工业能源消耗量和工业GDP指标,核算碳排放总量和强度,并利用情景分析构建长期能源替代规划(LEAP)模型,模拟预测2023—2050年淮安市工业碳达峰碳中和发展趋势。结果显示:2012—2022年,淮安市工业碳排放总量由2811.84万吨上升至3056.31万吨,碳强度由3.75tCO_(2)/万元下降至1.87tCO_(2)/万元;在碳强度每年降低5%时,淮安市工业碳排放总量和强度发展趋势最符合碳达峰碳中和控制预期。In the new period of the comprehensive transition from dual control of energy consumption to dual control of carbon emission and the reduction of binding indicators from energy consumption intensity to carbon emission intensity,this paper calculates the total amount and intensity of carbon emission based on industrial energy consumption and industrial GDP indicators of Huai'an City,and uses scenario analysis to build a long-term energy alternative planning(LEAP)model.The simulation predicts the trend of industrial carbon peaking carbon neutrality in Huai'an City from 2023 to 2050.The results show that from 2012 to 2022,the total industrial carbon emissions of Huai'an city increased from 28118400 tons to 30563100 tons,and the carbon intensity decreased from 3.75tCO_(2) per million yuan to 1.87tCO_(2) per million yuan.When the carbon intensity is reduced by 5%per year,the development trend of industrial carbon emission and intensity in Huai'an City is the most consistent with the expectation of carbon peak carbon neutral control.

关 键 词：碳排放双控 碳核算 长期能源替代规划模型 “双碳”目标 

分 类 号：X324[环境科学与工程—环境工程]