曹妃甸X构造区井漏风险层位预测方法  

Prediction Method of Lost Circulation Risk Horizon in CFDX Structure

作　　者：谭伟雄 赵才顺 郭建东 孙玉红 TAN Weixiong;ZHAO Caishun;GUO Jiandong;SUN Yuhong(CNOOC Ener Tech-Drilling&Production Co.,Tianjin 300452,China)

机构地区：[1]中海油能源发展股份有限公司工程技术分公司,天津300452

出　　处：《北京石油化工学院学报》2025年第1期33-39,共7页Journal of Beijing Institute of Petrochemical Technology

基　　金：中海油能源发展股份有限公司重大科技专项(课题)“钻井地质风险评价及实时导向技术研究(HFZDZX-GJ2020-01-05)”、“深层深井压力预测监测技术研究”(HFKJ-ZX-GJ-2023-05-01)。

摘　　要：针对曹妃甸X构造区内发育的多组断层不同位置的井漏风险层位预测难题,根据建立的地质模型和裂缝预测模型体数据,计算断层破碎带厚度,预测破碎带泥质质量分数和断层渗透率,使用泥岩涂抹法定量评价断层封堵性,评价断层两侧破碎带范围。基于地质模型、裂缝预测模型、岩石力学参数及地应力预测模型的网格属性数据和钻井液的性能数据,建立了井漏风险层位评价特征参数的数据库,划分数据集及建立敏感性参数分析模型,得到敏感性较强的特征参数。通过模型训练和模型精确度评估确定最优化的算法模型,从而建立井漏风险层位预测模型,实现了井漏风险层位的定量预测。采用盲井和新钻井对预测效果进行评估,结果表明:预测结果与实际井漏风险事件标记基本吻合,符合率为86.0%。Aiming at the problem of predicting the risk of lost circulation in different positions of multiple faults developed in CFD X structural area,according to the established geological model and fracture prediction model volume data,the thickness of fault fracture zone is calculated,and the shale mass fraction and fault permeability of fracture zone are predicted.The mudstone smear method is used to quantitatively evaluate the fault sealing and evaluate the range of fracture zone on both sides of the fault.Based on the grid attribute data of geological model,fracture prediction model,rock mechanics parameters and in-situ stress prediction model and the performance data of drilling fluid,a database of characteristic parameters for evaluating the risk of lost circulation is established.The data set is divided and the sensitivity parameter analysis model is established to obtain the characteristic parameters with strong sensitivity.Through model training and model accuracy evaluation,the optimal algorithm model is determined,and the prediction model of lost circulation risk horizon is established,and the quantitative prediction of lost circulation risk horizon is realized.Blind wells and new wells were used to evaluate the prediction effect.The results show that the prediction results are basically consistent with the actual lost circulation risk event markers,and the coincidence rate is 86.0%.

关 键 词：勘探开发 工程技术 断块油气田 井漏风险层位 

分 类 号：TE142[石油与天然气工程—油气勘探]