1990—2020年临沧市鼠疫流行情况与环境因素的多重对应分析  

The plague epidemic and environmental factors in Lincang City from 1990 to 2020:a multiple correspondence analysis

作　　者：付廷早 何雨秋 赵丹妮 王仕莲 朱俊洁 Fu Tingzao;He Yuqiu;Zhao Danni;Wang Shilian;Zhu Junjie(Administration Department,Lincang People's Hospital of Yunnan Province,Lincang 677000,China;Department of Public Health,Lincang Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Lincang 677000,China;Department of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention,Lincang Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Lincang 677000,China;Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics,School of Public Health,Dali University,Dali 671000,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省临沧市人民医院办公室,临沧677000 [2]云南省临沧市疾病预防控制中心公共卫生科,临沧677000 [3]云南省临沧市疾病预防控制中心传染病防治科,临沧677000 [4]云南大理大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学教研室,大理671000

出　　处：《中华地方病学杂志》2025年第2期128-132,共5页Chinese Journal of Endemiology

摘　　要：目的探讨临沧市鼠疫流行情况与环境因素之间的关联。方法自临沧市疾病预防控制中心收集临沧市1990—2020年鼠疫流行调查数据,自中国气象局数据共享服务网数据共享平台收集鼠疫发生地环境因素(海拔、温度、降雨、季节)信息,采用多重对应分析(MCA)方法进行分析。结果临沧市1990—2005年共发生鼠疫38起,波及人间17起;2006—2020年进入静息期,未发生鼠疫流行。时间分布,鼠疫主要发生在秋季及初冬,高峰期为9、10月。地区分布,主要发生在临翔区、耿马傣族佤族自治县、镇康县和云县。MCA分析结果显示,所有变量在第一、二维度上的Cronbach′α系数分别为0.87和0.82,特征根分别为3.27和2.91,两个维度累积贡献率为84.60%;在海拔>1400~1650 m、年均降雨量1000~1200 mm、年均气温16.0~17.9℃地区,冬季较易发生鼠疫,且疫情较为重大;在海拔>500~700、>900~1150 m,年均降雨量<1000、1201~1400、>1600 mm,年均气温18.0~19.9℃地区,无季节差异,均易发生鼠疫,且疫情特别重大。结论临沧市鼠疫流行情况和当地气候条件有密切关联。今后应加强气候条件特别是气象信息监测,以便能更好地防治鼠疫。ObjectiveThis study aims to investigate the relationship between plague epidemics and environmental factors in Lincang City.MethodsEpidemiological survey data and environmental factors(including altitude,temperature,rainfall,and season)from plague occurrence sites in Lincang City from 1990 to 2020 were collected from Lincang Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the data sharing platform of the data sharing service network of the China Meteorological Administration,and analyzed using multiple correspondence analysis(MCA).ResultsFrom 1990 to 2005,a total of 38 outbreaks of plague among rodents had been reported,17 of which involved human beings.Since 2006,the plague had entered a dormant period,with no further epidemics reported up to 2020.The plague epidemic in Lincang City exhibited a clear seasonal variation,with the primary epidemic season occurred from autumn to early winter,peaking in September and October.Furthermore,the plague epidemic in Lincang City exhibited a pronounced spatial aggregation,with the primary affected regions including Linxiang County,Gengma Dai and Va Autonomous County,Zhenkang County,and Yun County.MCA showed that the Cronbach'αcoefficients of all variables in the first and second dimensions were 0.87 and 0.82,respectively,and the characteristic roots were 3.27 and 2.91,respectively.The cumulative contribution rate of the two dimensions was 84.60%.Plague outbreaks were more likely in winter in areas at altitudes of>1400-1650 m with 1000-1200 mm average annual rainfall and 16.0-17.9℃average annual temperature,with increased severity.Regions at altitudes of>500-700 m and>900-1150 m,with average annual rainfall of<1000,1201-1400 and>1600 mm and average annual temperature of 18.0-19.9℃,showed a higher susceptibility to plague outbreaks,with notably pronounced incidences.ConclusionsThe prevalence of plague epidemics is closely related to the local climatic conditions of natural foci in Lincang City.Therefore,it is imperative to enhance the monitoring of these climatic conditions

关 键 词：鼠疫 环境因素 多重对应分析 

分 类 号：R51[医药卫生—内科学]