基于多模式多要素预报检验评估——以“第十四届全国冬季运动会”海拉尔赛区和扎兰屯赛区关键场馆为例  

Verification and Evaluation of Multi-factor Forecast Based on Multi-model:A Case Study of Key Venues in Hailar and Zhalantun Competition Areas for the 14th National Winter Games

作　　者：刘思彤 白明 杨雪峰 Liu Sitong;Bai Ming;Yang Xuefeng(Hulun Buir Meteorological Bureau,Hulun Buir 021008,China)

机构地区：[1]呼伦贝尔市气象局,内蒙古呼伦贝尔021008

出　　处：《内蒙古气象》2025年第1期68-72,共5页Meteorology Journal of Inner Mongolia

摘　　要：文章利用气温、风向、风速、降水量等地面常规观测资料、智能预报方法产品以及数值预报产品,从影响系统、模式检验等方面,分析开幕式天气,着重对“十四冬”海拉尔赛区开幕式当日及扎兰屯赛区2月13—26日进行多要素多模式预报检验评估。结果表明:(1)冷涡是开幕式天气的主要影响系统,多模式预报明显降雪,但实况现场附近仅2个区域气象站有少量降雪、开幕式现场未出现降雪,主要原因是水汽条件有所欠缺;(2)开幕式多要素预报中,STNF的气温和阵风风速预报性能最好,平均风速和风向预报上MMIC表现最优异,湿度预报上MIFS参考价值最大;(3)扎兰屯赛区MMIC的气温预报性能最好,风向预报上赛区预报员人工订正效果最好,EC参考价值最大,其余要素预报STNF表现最优异。Using surface conventional observation data such as temperature,wind direction and speed,precipitation,intelligent prediction products,and numerical prediction products,the weather of the opening ceremony of the 14th National Winter Games was analyzed from the aspects of impact system and model verification.Emphasis was placed on evaluating multi-factor and multimodel forecasts for the opening ceremony of the 14th National Winter Games at the Hailar venue and for the period from February 13th to 26th at the Zhalantun venue.The results showed that:(1)During the opening ceremony,the weather was mainly impacted by the cold vortex.Multiple models had forecasted significant snowfall,but only two regional stations near the Inner Mongolia Ice Sports Training Center reported a small amount of snowfall,and no snowfall occurred at the opening ceremony site,primarily due to insufficient moisture conditions.(2)Among the multi-factor forecasts for the opening ceremony,STNF performed best in forecasting temperature and gust wind velocity,while MMIC performed best in forecasting mean wind velocity and direction,and MIFS performed best in forecasting humidity.(3)At the Zhalantun venue,MMIC performed best in forecasting temperature,while manual correction effect of forecasters performed best in forecasting wind velocity,with EC model providing the most valuable reference.For other factors,STNF performed best.

关 键 词：智能预报 数值预报 水汽条件 模式检验 

分 类 号：P459.9[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]