美国制造业复兴的发展及趋势——基于投入产出视角  

The Development and Trend of the Renaissance of the Manufacturing Industry in the U.S.--Based on an Input-Output Perspective

作　　者：陆晓明[1] LU Xiao-ming(Bank of China,New York Branch)

机构地区：[1]中国银行纽约分行,纽约10018

出　　处：《当代金融研究》2025年第2期37-47,共11页Journal of Contemporary Financial Research

摘　　要：目前关于美国制造业萎缩、复兴和回流的研究主要集中于制造业在国民经济中的直接作用以及供给端。从制造业的需求端——制成品消费在美国和全球的发展及趋势探讨美国制造业整体萎缩的底层逻辑和原因,并从制造业对国民经济的直接、间接和衍生作用论证其复兴和回流的必要。在此基础上,从三个维度评估美国最具有投入产出优势的制造业领域及未来的复兴和回流机会,探讨其复兴和回流的短板及应对、动能及前瞻,从必要性和可行性视角预测美国制造业复兴和回流的前景。Current research on the decline,renaissance and reshoring of the U.S.manufacturing industry mainly focuses on the direct role of manufacturing in the national economy and the supply side.This report explores the underlying logic and causes for the overall contraction of the U.S.manufacturing industry from the perspective of the development and trend of manufacturing demand——manufactured goods consumption in the U.S.and the world.From the direct,indirect and derivative effects of manufacturing on the national economy,the necessity of revival and reshoring is demonstrated;On this basis,it evaluates the manufacturing sector with the most input/output advantages in the U.S.and the future revival and reshoring opportunities from three dimensions,discusses the challenges and responses,momentum and prospects of revival and reshoring,and predicts the prospects of revival and reshoring of the U.S.manufacturing industry from the perspective of necessity and feasibility.

关 键 词：美国制造业 制成品需求 全球制成品贸易 

分 类 号：F11.0[经济管理—国际贸易]