基于多重特征交叉分析的铁水联运系统关键因素识别  

Identification of Critical Factors in Rail-Water Intermodal Transport System Based on Cross Analysis of Multiple Features

作　　者：赵媛 李彦 ZHAO Yuan;LI Yan(College of Transportation Engineering,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,Liaoning,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输工程学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《铁道运输与经济》2025年第4期18-28,47,共12页Railway Transport and Economy

基　　金：辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目(L21BJY005)。

摘　　要：为贯彻落实国家综合运输体系绿色低碳发展政策,实现铁水联运高质量发展目标,亟须厘清铁水联运系统的关键影响因素。基于文献分析和专家调查,从政策、经济、环境、技术、资源、服务、主体7个维度进行因素梳理,筛选出14个主要影响因素,运用解释结构模型(ISM)解析因素间的因果层次关系,运用MICMAC方法分析各因素的依赖性和驱动力。通过对因素的因果层次关系、依赖性与驱动力和内外部属性3类特征的交叉分析,识别出关键影响因素并针对这些因素提出对策建议。研究表明:运输政策、信息技术、基础设施、经营主体和碳排放量是影响铁水联运系统发展的关键因素。To implement the national policy of green and low-carbon development of the integrated transportation system and achieve the high-quality development goals of rail-water intermodal transport,it is necessary to clarify the critical factors affecting rail-water intermodal transport system.Based on a literature review and expert surveys,14 key influencing factors were selected from seven dimensions:policy,economics,environment,technology,resources,services,and entities.The causal hierarchical linkages between components were constructed using the interpretive structural modeling(ISM)technique.The dependence and driving force of the factors were examined by the MICMAC method.Key influencing factors were identified through cross analysis of multiple features,including hierarchical relationships,dependencies and driving forces,and internal and external attributes.For these factors,recommendations and countermeasures were put out.Research shows that transportation policy,information technology,infrastructure,operating entities,and carbon emissions are the critical factors affecting the development of the rail-water intermodal transport system.

关 键 词：铁水联运 关键因素 解释结构模型 MICMAC分析 内外部属性 

分 类 号：U2[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程] F532[经济管理—产业经济]