粮食主产区政策的粮食生产安全效应研究  

Study on the Food Production Security Impact of Policies in Major Grain-Producing Areas

作　　者：何筠[1] 桂俊练 罗海平[2] HE Yun;GUI Junlian;LUO Haiping(School of Economics and Management,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China;Research Center for Economic and Social Development of Central China,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌大学经济管理学院,南昌330031 [2]南昌大学中国中部经济社会发展研究中心,南昌330031

出　　处：《农业经济与管理》2025年第1期1-14,共14页Agricultural Economics and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助重点项目(24FJLA002)。

摘　　要：设立粮食主产区是国家保障粮食生产安全的重要举措,实证检验粮食主产区政策对粮食生产安全的影响能为粮食政策改革提供一定参考。文章基于1997—2022年全国31省份面板数据,利用双重差分模型系统考察粮食主产区政策对粮食生产安全的影响、异质性、作用机制。研究发现,粮食主产区政策能有效保障主产区粮食生产安全,其对沿海、低粮食产量及低播种面积地区保障作用相对较小;进一步的粮食主产区政策可通过发展粮食生产规模经营及促进农业技术进步保障粮食生产安全,且粮食生产规模经营与农业技术进步具有协同效应;该政策还能够保障主产区邻近省份粮食生产安全。据此,建议沿海地区加大耕地保护力度、粮食产量较低地区着力改善农业生产条件、粮食播种面积较小地区强化政策扶持及激励;鼓励发展粮食生产适度规模经营、推动农业技术发展、深化粮食主产区示范引领效应、加强粮食生产从业者间的交流合作,以进一步发挥粮食主产区政策的粮食生产安全保障效应。The establishment of major grain-producing areas is an important measure for the country to ensure food production safety.The empirical test of the impact of the policy on food production safety in major grain-producing areas can provide some references for food policy reform.The article is based on the panel data of 31 provinces(cities,districts)from 1997 to 2022,the difference-in-differences model is used to systematically investigate the impact of the policy on food production safety in major grain-producing areas,heterogeneity,and mechanisms.The study found that:the policy of establishing major grain-producing areas can effectively ensure the food production safety of the main producing areas,but its effect on the grain production security of coastal areas,areas with low grain output,and areas with low sowing area is relatively small;the policy of establishing major grain-producing areas can ensure food production safety by developing large-scale grain production operations and promoting agricultural technological progress,there is also a synergistic effect between large-scale grain production operations and agricultural technological progress;the policy can also ensure the food production safety of neighboring provinces.Based on this,it is suggested that coastal areas should enhance the protection of arable land,regions with lower grain output should focus on improving agricultural production conditions,and areas with smaller grain sown areas should strengthen policy support and incentives.The development of moderate-scale grain production operations should be encouraged,agricultural technological progress should be promoted,the exemplary leading effect of major grain-producing areas should be deepen,and enhance exchanges and cooperation among grain producers should be enhanced,in order to further play the role of the policy of establishing major grain-producing areas in ensuring food production safety.

关 键 词：粮食主产区 粮食生产安全 双重差分 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]