我国粮食产业高质量发展评价及其驱动因素辨析  

Evaluation of High Quality Development of Chinese Grain Industry and Analysis of Its Driving Factors

作　　者：方伟 田璞玉 王佳友 FANG Wei;TIAN Puyu;WANG Jiayou(Institute of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development,Guangdong Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Guangzhou 510640,China;Key Laboratory of Urban Agriculture in South China,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Guangzhou 510640,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所,广州510640 [2]农业农村部华南都市农业重点实验室,广州510640

出　　处：《农业经济与管理》2025年第1期15-29,共15页Agricultural Economics and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助暨优秀博士论文项目(22FJYB059)。

摘　　要：推动粮食产业高质量发展是保障国家粮食安全的关键举措。文章从“保产、高效、减量、增收”四个维度选取指标,构建粮食产业高质量发展评价体系,并使用地理探测器分析驱动因素,基于2016—2020年我国主产区、产销平衡区和主销区三个粮食生产功能区的数据,探讨我国粮食产业高质量发展驱动因素。研究表明,主产区的粮食产业高质量发展水平最高,平衡区次之,主销区最低,三者在研究期内均有提高;各功能区的“保产”维度指数变化不一、“高效”维度指数均呈“N”字型上升、“减量”维度指数均逐年提高、“增收”维度指数均波动下滑。进一步研究表明,主产区的主要驱动因素为人均水资源量、人均GDP、财政支农;主销区的主要驱动因素为受灾率、农地流转率、农村劳动力人均耕地面积;平衡区的主要驱动因素为区域常住人口、农地流转率、环境规制综合指数。三个功能区的驱动因素存在一定异质性,各因素的交互作用都属于“双因子增强型”,作用最高的是农地流转率与财政支农的交互项。因此,提出粮食产业高质量发展亟需推动多目标协同,依托科技创新、政策引导促进多赢局面,以期实现“保产、高效、减量、增收”。Promoting the high-quality development of the grain industry is a key measure to guarantee national food security.Indicators from the four dimensions of"maintaining production,high efficiency,reducing quantity and increasing income",an evaluation system for the high-quality development of the grain industry was constructed,the driving factors were analyzed using geographic probes,and the driving factors for highquality development of China's grain industry was discussed based on the data of the three functional zones of China's main production areas,production and marketing balance areas,and main marketing areas in the period of 2016-2020.The main conclusions of the study are as follows:Firstly,the main production areas own the highest level of high-quality development of the grain industry,followed by the balanced production and marketing areas and the main marketing areas,and all three of them have improved during the study period;the indexes of the"production preservation"dimension varied in each functional area,while the indexes of the"high efficiency"dimension showed an"N"shape.The"production preservation"dimension index varied,the"high efficiency"dimension index rose in an"N"shape,the"reduction"dimension index increased year by year,and the"income increase"dimension index fluctuated and declined.Secondly,the main driving factors of the main production area are per capita water resources,per capita GDP,and financial support for agriculture;the main driving factors of the main marketing area are disaster rate,agricultural land transfer rate,and per capita cultivated land area of the rural labor force;and the main driving factors of the balanced area are the regional resident population,agricultural land transfer rate,and the comprehensive index of environmental regulation.There is some heterogeneity in the driving factors of the three functional areas,and the interactions of the factors belong to the"two-factor enhancement type",with the highest interaction between the rate of transfer of agricultural land an

关 键 词：粮食 高质量发展 地理探测器 驱动因素 交互作用 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]