“双循环”背景下我国种业贸易的现实困境与实现路径研究  

Research on the Realistic Difficulties and Implementation Paths of China's Seed Trade under the Background of"Dual Circulation"

作　　者：陈卫洪[1] 王莹 刘娜[1] 安龙 CHEN Weihong;WANG Ying;LIU Na;AN Long(School of Economics,Guizhou University,Guiyang 550025,China;Seed Station of Agriculture and Rural Bureau,Weining Yi,Hui and Miao Autonomous County,Bijie 551700,Guizhou China)

机构地区：[1]贵州大学经济学院,贵阳550025 [2]贵州省毕节地区威宁彝族回族苗族自治县农业农村局种子站,贵州毕节551700

出　　处：《农业经济与管理》2025年第1期133-146,共14页Agricultural Economics and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(BGX230346);教育部新农科研究与改革实践项目(2020347);贵州省科技平台及人才团队计划项目(黔科合平台人才[2017]5647);贵州省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目(2024RW321)。

摘　　要：当前我国种子贸易常年处于逆差状态,严重威胁了种子安全、粮食安全。在国家提出的“加快形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局”背景下,提高我国种子自主能力至关重要。文章基于对中国种业“内外循环”演进的梳理及内外循环系统对种子进出口贸易影响的理论分析,利用CMS模型分析2011—2019年影响我国农作物种子进出口贸易逆差的主要因素。研究发现,我国农作物种子出口增长主要依赖世界市场的需求变动。2011—2019年我国种子出口的竞争力效应均为负,农作物种子竞争力缺乏是阻碍我国种子出口的主要因素。我国农作物种子出口产品结构和竞争力变动与世界需求变化未趋同,对农作物种子需求增长较快的市场反应不够灵敏,不能及时扩大市场份额。在进口方面,农作物种子进口持续增加的最主要原因在于我国的大豆种子、蔬菜种子以及草种等种子品质和国外差距大,与我国市场的种子需求存在结构性矛盾,同时也反映出国际市场农作物种子的竞争力优势强于我国。面对新的经济发展格局,应加强利用国家种质资源,充分发挥国家种质资源在种业创新中的作用;培育种企科技创新能力,加强知识产权保护,提升国产种子竞争力;完成国内种业市场的并购重组,优化种子市场的产业链、供应链和价值链,从而保障我国种子安全和粮食安全。At present,China's seed trade is perennially in deficit,seriously threatening seed security and food security.Against the background of"accelerating the formation of a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the domestic and international cycles promoting each other"proposed by the state,it is crucial to improve the independent capacity of China's seed industry.Based on the theoretical analysis of the evolution of China's seed"internal and external cycle"and the impact of the internal and external cycle system on seed import and export trade,the article analyzes the main factors affecting China's crop seed import and export trade deficit from 2011 to 2019 using the CMS model.It is found that the growth of China's crop seed export mainly relies on the demand changes in the world market.The competitiveness effect of China's seed export from 2011-2019 is negative,and the lack of competitiveness of crop seed is the main factor hindering China's seed export.The product structure and competitiveness changes of China's crop seed exports have not converged with the changes in world demand,and they are not sensitive enough to respond to the market where the demand for crop seeds grows faster,so they cannot expand their market share in time.In terms of imports,crop seed imports continue to increase the most important reason is that China's soybean seeds,vegetable seeds and grass seeds and other seed quality and the gap between foreign countries,and China's market demand for seeds there is a structural contradiction,but also reflects the international market crop seed competitiveness advantage is stronger than our country.In the face of the new pattern of economic development,we should strengthen the use of national germplasm resources and give full play to the role of national germplasm resources in seed industry innovation;cultivate the scientific and technological innovation capacity of seed enterprises,strengthen the protection of intellectual property rights,and enhance the competitiveness

关 键 词：“双循环” 贸易逆差 CMS模型 种子竞争力 

分 类 号：F320.3[经济管理—产业经济]