汾河流域土地利用变化对洪水过程的影响  

Impact of Land Use Change on Flood Processes in the Fenhe River Basin

作　　者：梁纪尧 郭青霞[1] LIANG Jiyao;GUO Qingxia(College of Resources and Environment,Shanxi Agricultural University,Taigu 030801,China)

机构地区：[1]山西农业大学资源环境学院,山西太谷030801

出　　处：《人民黄河》2025年第4期51-57,共7页Yellow River

基　　金：山西省回国留学人员科研教研资助项目(2022-111)。

摘　　要：为探究土地利用变化对流域洪水过程的影响,以汾河流域为研究区,通过SWAT模型和极端土地利用情景分析法,分析不同时期和不同情景下土地利用类型变化对场次洪水过程的影响。结果表明:1)率定期和验证期纳什系数E_(NS)均值大于0.70,决定系数R~2均值大于0.65,表明SWAT模型在汾河流域具有较好的适用性;2)2000—2020年耕地、草地、水域和未利用地面积减少,林地和建设用地面积增加;3)2000年、2010年和2020年土地利用条件下,各场次洪峰流量和洪水总量呈现小幅度增加趋势;4)耕地情景下,各场次洪水的洪峰流量和洪水总量呈增加趋势,而在林地和草地情景下均呈减少趋势。影响幅度方面,土地利用变化对较大洪水过程影响较小,对中小洪水过程影响较大。适当在洪涝灾害高发区和水土流失严重区增加林草面积和提高植被覆盖率,推进适水种植,避免高耗水植被,可提升汾河流域防洪抗涝、防灾减灾的能力,推动汾河流域生态修复和高质量发展。In order to investigate the influence of land use change to the basin flood process,the Fenhe River Basin was chosen as the study area.The SWAT model and the extreme land use scenario analysis method were employed to analyze the effects of land use type changes on the flood process in different periods and scenarios.The results show that a)the mean value of Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(ENS)is greater than 0.70 and the mean value of determination coefficient(R2)is greater than 0.65 during the calibrated and validated period,indicating that the SWAT model has good applicability in the Fenhe River Basin.b)Between 2000 and 2020,there is a reduction in the area of cultivated land,grassland,water bodies and unused land,while the area of forested land and built-up land is increased.c)Under the land use in 2000,2010 and 2020,each peak flow and the total flood volume show a slight upward trend.d)Under the arable land scenario,there is an increasing trend in each peak flow and its total flood volume;while under both the woodland and grassland scenarios,there is a decreasing trend.In terms of magnitude of impact,land use type change has a smaller impact on larger flood processes and a larger impact on small and medium flood processes.Therefore,it is necessary to increase the area of forest and grass and vegetation coverage,promote water-appropriate planting,and avoid high-water-consuming vegetation in areas with high incidence of flood disasters and serious soil erosion,so as to improve the ability of flood control,flood resistance,disaster prevention and mitigation in Fenhe River Basin,and promote ecological restoration and high-quality development in Fenhe River Basin.

关 键 词：土地利用 SWAT模型 洪峰流量 洪量 汾河流域 

分 类 号：TV12[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TV882.1