黄河水沙过程变化趋势及阶段划分研究  

Study on the Trend and Phases of Water and Sediment Processes in Yellow River

作　　者：葛雷 甘茶 燕文昌 冀翔 GE Lei;GAN Cha;YAN Wenchang;JI Xiang(Insititue of Yellow River Water Resources Protection,Zhengzhou 450004,China)

机构地区：[1]黄河水资源保护科学研究院,河南郑州450004

出　　处：《人民黄河》2025年第4期92-99,共8页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金黄河水科学研究联合基金资助项目(U2443213);国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0404400,2023YFC3206202-01);河南省重大科技专项(201300311400);黄委优秀青年人才科技项目(HQK-202320);黄河水资源保护科学研究院科研专项(KYY-KYZX-2022-02)。

摘　　要：为合理划定黄河水沙变化阶段,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法和贝叶斯模型平均法对黄河干流唐乃亥、兰州、头道拐、潼关、花园口、利津6个主要水文断面1956—2022年的水文泥沙序列进行趋势分析和突变点检测。结果表明:黄河源区水沙变化趋势不明显,其他水文断面呈下降趋势,径流序列突变点为1969年、1986年和2018年,与水利枢纽工程蓄水运用密切相关,且具有流域性影响;多数水文断面泥沙序列突变点发生在20世纪60年代,之后年输沙量呈下降趋势,主要受流域水土保持等影响;建议进行径流序列分析时划分为1969年以前、1969—1985年、1986—2017年、2018年至今4个阶段,泥沙序列分析应以趋势性评价为主。In order to reasonably delineate the stages of water and sediment series in the Yellow River,the Mann-Kendall and Bayesian Model Averaging(BMA)were employed to analyze the trends and detect change points in the hydro-sediment sequences from six cross-sections of the Yellow River mainstream,namely Tangnaihai,Lanzhou,Toudaoguai,Tongguan,Huayuankou and Lijin from 1956 to 2022.The results indicate that the flow-sediment conditions in the Yellow River source region show no significant trend,while the other sections exhibit a decreasing trend.The abrupt points of runoff sequence are 1969,1986 and 2018,which are closely related to the operation of water storage in key water control project and have regional influence.Most of the abrupt change points of sediment sequence in hydrological sections occur in the 1960s,and then show a significant downward trend,mainly due to the influence of soil and water conservation in the basin.It is recommended to divide the runoff series into four stages of before 1969,1969-1985,1986-2017 and from 2018 to the present,and the trend evaluation should be the main stage for sediment sequence analysis.

关 键 词：径流量 输沙量 趋势分析 突变点检验 阶段划分 黄河 

分 类 号：P33[天文地球—水文科学] TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源]