增值税改革能带动服务业升级吗?来自新质生产力实现路径的检验  

Can the Value-added Tax Reform Promote the Upgrading of Service Industry?Test from the Realization Path of New Quality Productivity

作　　者：胡晓东[1] 杨艺斐 黎宇霞[2] HU Xiaodong;YANG Yifei;LI Yuxia(School of Management,South-Central Minzu University,Wuhan 430074,China;Law School,South-Central Minzu University,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]中南民族大学管理学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]中南民族大学法学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《财经论丛》2025年第4期41-51,共11页Collected Essays on Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(21BMZ061);中南民族大学学术创新团队经费项目(XTS24019)。

摘　　要：作为供给侧结构性改革的重要制度,“营改增”与简并税率政策通过税收抵扣和税率优化,驱动服务业与制造业协同创新及产业转型升级。本文基于2009—2021年A股数据,采用准自然实验方法检验增值税改革效应,发现“营改增”和简并税率显著提升了服务业的劳动生产率和全要素生产率,推动了服务业的转型升级。相较于现有研究,本文聚焦生产性服务业与制造业的深度互动,突破“营改增”与简并税率割裂分析的局限,量化两政策的阶段性贡献,验证了政策协同对新质生产力的驱动作用。特别地,本文从融通耦合与协同创新视角,区分生产性与生活性服务业政策效应,实证揭示“营改增”与简并税率政策通过强化制造业外购需求和缓解服务业融资约束的双重路径,显著促进了服务业升级,凸显了增值税改革在新质生产力形成中的关键作用。As a key component of supply-side structural reform,the replacing business tax with value-added tax(VAT)and tax rate simplification policies drive collaborative innovation and industrial transformation between the service and manufacturing sectors through tax deductions and optimized tax rates.Using A-share data from 2009 to 2021,this paper employs a quasi-natural experiment to examine the effects of VAT reform,finding that both replacing business tax with VAT and tax rate simplification significantly enhance the service industry's labor productivity and total factor productivity,thereby promoting its transformation and upgrading.This paper focuses on the deep interactions between producer services and manufacturing,overcomes the limitation of analyzing replacing business tax with VAT and tax rate simplification in isolation,quantifies their contributions,and verifies their synergistic role in fostering new quality productivity.Notably,from the perspective of industrial interaction and collaborative innovation,this study distinguishes the policy effects on producer versus consumer services and finds that replacing business tax with VAT and tax rate simplification significantly advance service industry upgrading through the dual channels of increasing the demand of the manufacturing sector for the service sector and alleviating financing constraints in the service sector.Thus this paper underscores the critical role of VAT reform in the formation of new quality productivity.

关 键 词：“营改增” 简并税率 新质生产力 

分 类 号：F810[经济管理—财政学]