2011—2023年通江县手足口病监测分析及ARIMA模型预测  

Surveillance analysis of hand,foot and mouth disease and prediction of ARIMA model in Tongjiang County from 2011 to 2023

作　　者：陶小娥 李鑫 赵华林 谢璇 袁丹 杨晨曦 赵廷明 TAO Xiaoe;LI Xin;ZHAO Hualin;XIE Xuan;YUAN Dan;YANG Chenxi;ZHAO Tingming(Tongjiang County Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Tongjiang 636700,Sichuan Province,China)

机构地区：[1]通江县疾病预防控制中心,四川通江636700

出　　处：《寄生虫病与感染性疾病》2025年第1期52-59,共8页Parasitoses and Infectious Diseases

摘　　要：目的对2011—2023年四川省通江县手足口病(HFMD)流行特征进行分析,建立差分自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)预测发病情况,为制定防治策略提供理论依据。方法利用中国疾病预防控制信息系统导出2011—2023年四川省通江县手足口病病例资料,使用Excel 2016软件进行数据整理,采用R 4.2.2软件进行统计分析并构建ARIMA模型进行数据预测,率间比较采用χ^(2)检验,检验水准为α=0.05。结果2011—2023年四川省通江县手足口病年均发病率为67.73/10万。病原分型以其他肠道病毒居多(41.06%),各年份病原分型差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=421.677,P<0.001)。总体呈全年发病态势,呈双峰分布,主、次高峰分别为4至6月、10至12月。男女发病率分别为79.69/10万、55.48/10万,差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=186.202,P<0.001);发病年龄集中在6岁及以下(96.07%),发病率随年龄增长而降低(χ_(趋势)^(2)=6123.000,P<0.001);职业以散居儿童为主(65.71%)。各乡镇均有病例报告。ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,1)12为最优模型,预测2024年通江县手足口病发病率为65.58/10万,且有5至7月和10至12月2个发病高峰。结论通江县手足口病防控力度应持续加强,应采取强化监测预警、优化医疗资源配置、推进疫苗接种、改善环境卫生、提高健康意识等多元化策略以降低手足口病发病率,保障人民群众身体健康。Objective To analyze the eidemiological characteristics of hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)in Tongjiang County of Sichuan Province from 2011 to 2023,and to establish an autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)to predict the incidence of HFMD,so as to provide theoretical basis for formulating prevention and control strategies.Methods The case data were derived from the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System,and the data were sorted out by Excel 2016.Statistical analysis and ARIMA model prediction were performed by using R 4.2.2.Chi-square test was used for the comparison of rate.The test level wasα=0.05.Results From 2011 to 2023,the annual average reported incidence rate of HFMD in Tongjiang County of Sichuan Province was 67.73/105.The majority of pathogenic typing were other enteroviruses,accounting for 41.06%,and the difference of pathogen types in each year was statistically significant(χ^(2)=421.677,P<0.001).Cases were reported every month throughout the year,showing a bimodal distribution.The main and the secondary peaks were from April to June and October to December.The incidence rates of males and females were 79.69/105and 55.48/105,and the difference was statistically significant(χ^(2)=186.202,P<0.001).The age of reported cases was mainly concentrated at 6 years and below,accounting for 96.07%,and the incidence rate decreased with age(χ_(trend)^(2)=6123.000,P<0.001).The occupation was mainly scattered children,accounting for 65.71%.Cases were reported in all townships.ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,1)12was the optimal model,which predicted that the incidence rate of HFMD in 2024 would be 65.58/105,and there would be two peaks of incidence in May to July and October to December.Conclusions The prevention and control of HFMD in Tongjiang County of Sichuan Province should be strengthened continuously.Diversified strategies such as strengthening monitoring and early warning,optimizing the allocation of medical resources,promoting vaccination,improving environmental sanitation,and improv

关 键 词：手足口病 流行特征 ARIMA 预测 

分 类 号：R725.1[医药卫生—儿科] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]