基于自回归移动平均模型与Joinpoint模型的血吸虫病防治相关文献发表量时间趋势分析  

Temporal trend analysis of publication amount of schistosomiasis control related literature based on autoregressive moving average model and joinpoint model

作　　者：朱宏儒[1] 邓瑶[1] 戎毅[2] 钱熠礼 潘丽[1] 邹言峥 陶璐秋 ZHU Hongru;DENG Yao;RONG Yi;QIAN Yili;PAN Li;ZOU Yanzheng;TAO Luqiu(Key Laboratory of Parasitic Disease Control and Prevention Technology of National Health Commission/Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Control Technology/Jiangsu Institute for Parasitic Disease Control and Prevention,Wuxi 214064,Jiangsu Province,China;Jiangsu Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nangjing 210000,Jiangsu Province,China)

机构地区：[1]国家卫生健康委员会寄生虫病预防与控制技术重点实验室,江苏省寄生虫与媒介控制技术重点实验室,江苏省血吸虫病防治研究所,江苏无锡214064 [2]江苏省疾病预防控制中心,南京210000

出　　处：《预防医学情报杂志》2025年第3期409-416,共8页Journal of Preventive Medicine Information

基　　金：江苏省期刊协会期刊出版研究课题(项目编号:2024JSQKB76);2024小编·仁和基金(项目编号:XBRH2024-005-034);江苏科技期刊研究基金(项目编号:JSRFSTP2023B07)。

摘　　要：目的探索基于自回归移动平均模型(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)与joinpoint模型分析血吸虫病防治相关文献发表量变化趋势,并反映血吸虫病研究开展情况的可行性。方法以“血吸虫病”和“血吸虫”为检索词检索中国知网与万方数据库中中文期刊论文与学位论文,以“schistosomiasis”“schistosome”和“schistosoma”为检索词检索PubMed数据库英文文献,时间范围均为1990年1月1日至2019年12月31日。排除重复文献后,统计各年份文献发表量,采用自回归移动平均模型与Joinpoint模型进行建模分析。结果1990—2019年血吸虫病相关中文文献累计95715篇,年均3190.5篇;英文研究文献共18144篇,年均604.8篇。ARIMA(1,2,0)模型可对本研究血吸虫病相关中文和英文文献发表量有效拟合(AR=-0.494、-0.590,t=-2.852、-3.718,P均<0.001;Q=7.185、28.029,P=0.981、0.545)。建立joinpoint模型发现,1990—2019年血吸虫病相关中文文献发表量变化趋势于1995(APC=9.7%,P<0.001)、2003年(APC=4.9%,P<0.001)和2006年(APC=24.3%,P=0.002)出现转折点;英文文献发表量变化趋势于2005、2014年出现转折点,但仅于2005—2014年间为增长趋势(APC=6.2%,P<0.001)。结论ARIMA模型和joinpoint模型均可对文献发表量变化趋势进行建模分析,其中joinpoint模型对识别文献发表量趋势变化情况更具优势。Objective To explore the feasibility of applying autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)and joinpoint models to analyze the change trend of publication amount related to schistosomiasis prevention and control and to reflect the research situation of schistosomiasis.Methods“Schistosomiasis”and“schistosoma”were selected as search terms to search Chinese journal papers and dissertations in CNKI(China National Knowledge Infrastructure)and Wanfang databases,and“schistosomiasis”,“schistosome”and“schistosoma”were used as search terms to search English literature in PubMed database.The time range was from January 1,1990 to December 31,2019.After the duplicate literature was excluded,the publication amount of the literature in each year was counted,and ARIMA and joinpoint models were applied for modeling analysis.Results From 1990 to 2019,there were a total of 95715 Chinese literature articles on schistosomiasis,with an average annual amount of 3190.5 articles.A total of 18144 articles were published in English,with an average annual amount of 604.8 articles.The ARIMA(1,2,0)model could effectively fit the amount of Chinese and English literature publications related to schistosomiasis in this study(ARC=-0.494 and-0.590,t=-2.852 and-3.718,all P<0.001;Q=7.185 and 28.029,P=0.981 and 0.545,respectively).The joinpoint model was established and it was found that the trend of publication amount of Chinese literature related to schistosomiasis from 1990 to 2019 showed a turning point in 1995(APC=9.7%,P<0.001),2003(APC=4.9%,P<0.001)and 2006(APC=24.3%,P=0.002),respectively.The change trend of publication amount of English literature showed a turning point in 2005 and 2014,respectively,and only increased from 2005 to 2014(APC=6.2%,P<0.001).Conclusions Both ARIMA model and joinpoint model could model and analyze the change trend of literature publication amount,and joinpoint model was more advantageous to identify the change trend of literature publication amount.

关 键 词：血吸虫病 文献 时间趋势 自回归移动平均模型 joinpoint模型 

分 类 号：R532.21[医药卫生—内科学]