“十五五”时期中国集成电路产业创新发展:外部形势、发展趋势与政策选择  

Innovative Development of China's IC Industry during the 15th Five-Year Plan Period:External Challenges,Development Trends,and Policy Choices

作　　者：李先军[1] LI Xian-jun

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所

出　　处：《改革》2025年第3期38-52,共15页Reform

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“智能制造关键核心技术国产替代战略与政策研究”(21&ZD132);国家社会科学基金重大项目“数字经济推动新兴产业创新的制度逻辑与系统构建研究”(22&ZD099);中国社会科学院登峰战略企业管理优势学科建设项目(DF2023YS25)。

摘　　要：集成电路产业是“十五五”时期全球竞争的核心产业之一。“十五五”时期是人工智能技术发展和“再全球化”的关键时期,全球集成电路产业依然将保持较高的增长速度。预期“十五五”时期中国集成电路产业继续保持高速增长态势,尤其是人工智能芯片需求快速增长;3~5纳米尖端制程有望突破,22纳米以下制程实现国产化“贯通”,装备、材料、软件和EDA工具等自主可控水平显著提升;“卡脖子”问题解决与“国产替代”进程进一步加速;国际合作持续加强,与南方国家尤其是共建“一带一路”国家和地区的合作不断深化。“十五五”时期,建议着眼未来竞争战略性调整产业发展目标,将解决“卡脖子”的“应对式”发展策略转向推动产业创新发展的“主动式”发展战略,重点推动人工智能和大算力“两类先进芯片”的聚力突破,促进传统技术路线有序推进和新技术路线涌现“两类技术路线”并行发展。探索“技术突破+工艺创新+智能赋能”的融合发展路径,构建“高质量供给+超大规模需求”共同推动的产业链协同融合发展体系,强化技术体系和产业体系的“再全球化”,在市场、技术、研发和标准等方面全面嵌入并引领全球产业生态建设。The integrated circuit(IC)industry is one of the core industries for global competition during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.This era coincides with critical advancements in artificial intelligence(AI)technology and the re-globalization.Global IC industry growth is expected to remain robust.China's IC sector is projected to sustain rapid growth,particularly in AI chips,with breakthroughs anticipated in 3-5nm advanced process nodes and full domestic capability for processes below 22nm.Progress in equipment,materials,software,and EDA tools will enhance self-reliance,while resolving bottleneck issues and accelerating domestic substitution.International cooperation will shift toward Global South nations,especially those along the Belt and Road Initiative.To navigate this period,China should transition from a"reactive"strategy addressing bottlenecks to a"proactive"innovation-driven approach.Key priorities include breakthroughs in AI and high-performance computing chips,parallel advancement of traditional and emerging technological pathways(e.g.,quantum and photonic chips),and integrated development via"technological breakthroughs+process innovation+AI empowerment".Building a synergistic industrial ecosystem driven by high-quality supply and ultra-large-scale demand is critical,alongside embedding China's technical and industrial systems into global value chains through market,R&D,and standard-setting leadership.

关 键 词：集成电路产业 人工智能 产业链协同 

分 类 号：F426.63[经济管理—产业经济]