基于系统动力学的港口碳排放影响因素研究——以宁波舟山港为例  

Research on influencing factors of port carbon emissions based on system dynamics:a case of Ningbo Zhoushan Port

作　　者：平凡 刘桂云[1] 胡俊林 PING Fan;LIU Guiyun;HU Junlin(Faculty of Maritime and Transportation,Ningbo University,Ningbo 315211,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]宁波大学海运学院,浙江宁波315211

出　　处：《上海海事大学学报》2025年第1期68-78,共11页Journal of Shanghai Maritime University

基　　金：高等学校学科创新引智计划(D21013)。

摘　　要：为推动港口在“双碳”战略背景下采取更有效的减碳对策,对影响港口碳排放的因素进行研究。在测算港口碳排放量的基础上,通过扩展的STIRPAT模型分析碳排放影响因素,并构建系统动力学模型研究主要影响因素。以宁波舟山港为例,设立4种不同情景模拟宁波舟山港碳排放变化趋势,分析变量对碳排放量的影响程度。结果表明:影响碳排放量的因素按其影响程度从大到小依次为经济发展、技术创新、能源强度和营业收入;增加创新投入、降低能源强度更有利于减少碳排放量。研究结果可为政府管理部门和港口企业决策提供参考,对促进港口绿色低碳发展具有一定的意义。In order to promote ports to take more effective carbon reduction countermeasures under the background of the“dual carbon”strategy,the factors influencing port carbon emissions are studied.On the basis of measuring carbon emissions of ports,the influencing factors of carbon emissions are analyzed through the extended STIRPAT model,and a system dynamics model is constructed to study the main influencing factors.Taking Ningbo Zhoushan Port as an example,four different scenarios are set up to simulate the carbon emission change trend of Ningbo Zhoushan Port,and the impact degrees of variables on carbon emissions are analyzed.The results show that,in descending order of impact,the factors influencing carbon emissions are economic development,technological innovation,energy intensity,and operating income;increasing innovation investment and reducing energy intensity are more conducive to reducing carbon emissions.The research results can provide reference for the decision-making of government management departments and port enterprises,and have certain significance for promoting the green and low-carbon development of ports.

关 键 词：碳排放 影响因素 STIRPAT模型 系统动力学 宁波舟山港 

分 类 号：U691[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程] F552[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]