欧盟碳边境调节机制对中国综合影响研究——以高碳产业出口为渠道  

The comprehensive impact of the EU CBAM on China:A provincial social accounting matrix analysis via high-carbon industry exports

作　　者：孙源辰 贺锦红 吴三忙 孙小晗 雷涯邻 周玲玲 何建武[4] 李善同[4] SUN Yuanchen;HE Jinhong;WU Sanmang;SUN Xiaohan;LEI Yalin;ZHOU Lingling;HE Jianwu;LI Shantong(School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences,Beijing 100083,China;Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment,Ministry of Natural Resources,Beijing 100083,China;College of Letters and Science,University of California(Los Angeles),Los Angeles 90095,United States;Development Research Center,State Council,Beijing 100010,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(北京)经济管理学院,北京100083 [2]自然资源部资源环境承载力评价重点实验室,北京100083 [3]加州大学洛杉矶分校文理学院,加州洛杉矶90095 [4]国务院发展研究中心,北京100010

出　　处：《煤炭经济研究》2025年第2期18-28,共11页Coal Economic Research

基　　金：地球深部探测与矿产资源勘查国家科技重大专项课题(2024ZD1002001);国家自然科学基金资助项目(71773118、71733003、72373136、72303240)。

摘　　要：深入评估欧盟碳边境调节机制对我国高碳产业出口进而对国内产业生产、就业及收入分配的影响尤为重要。此研究利用GTAP模型测算欧盟碳边境调节机制对我国高碳产业出口的冲击,并基于我国省级社会核算矩阵进一步测算其对我国的综合影响及影响路径。研究结果表明:①在欧盟碳边境调节机制全面实施的情境下,中国多个高碳产业对欧盟出口将下降20%~35%;②中国各省对高碳产业出口下降的传导路径存在明显的异质性,多数省份受制于地理位置和产业关联因素在省内不同产业间迅速传导,而浙江省和广东省的化学产品则倾向于优先传导至其他省份;③高碳产业出口下降对沿海省份城镇居民收入及非技术劳动力就业产生较大冲击,其中,通过影响非技术劳动力就业降低居民收入的传导路径占据较大比重。With the formal implementation of the European Union′s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM),it is crucial to thoroughly assess its impact on China′s high-carbon industry exports,as well as on domestic industrial production,labor,and income distribution.This study,which is based on China′s provincial social accounting matrix and incorporates the Global Trade Analysis Project model,reveals the following:①Under the full implementation of the EU′s CBAM,exports from several high-carbon industries of China to the EU are projected to decrease by 20%~35%.②The response of Chinese provinces to the decrease in high-carbon industry exports exhibit significant heterogeneity.Most provinces,constrained by geographical location and industrial linkages,are likely to experience rapid transmission within various industries at the provincial level.However,the manufacture of chemical products in provinces such as Zhejiang and Guangdong tends to be transmitted preferentially to other provinces.③The decrease in high-carbon industry exports is expected to have a substantial impact on the income of urban households and unskilled labor in coastal provinces.Notably,the transmission pathway through the impact on unskilled labor,leading to reduced income for households,occupies a significant proportion.This study provides policy insights into the formulation of targeted regional and industrial strategies,aiming to effectively mitigate the economic and social impacts resulting from the CBAM.

关 键 词：欧盟 碳边境调节机制 高碳产业 GTAP模型 社会核算矩阵 

分 类 号：F416.21[经济管理—产业经济]