新能源汽车推广的经济与碳排放影响——基于动态CGE模型  

Economic and carbon emission impacts of new energy vehicle promotion:Based on a dynamic CGE model

作　　者：卓铭杰 刘宇[2,3] 张硕[1] 梁栋 ZHUO MingJie;LIU Yu;ZHANG Shuo;LIANG Dong(College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China;College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Institute of Carbon Neutrality,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083 [2]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871 [3]北京大学碳中和研究院,北京100871

出　　处：《煤炭经济研究》2025年第2期47-58,共12页Coal Economic Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72125010,72243011,71974186)。

摘　　要：新能源汽车快速推广背景下,探究其经济和碳排放影响具有重要现实意义。通过构建包含能源投入嵌套与居民汽车消费嵌套的动态CGE模型,引入汽车保有量核算模块以及S型市场渗透率曲线,模拟新能源汽车推广的经济和碳排放影响。研究发现,推广新能源汽车虽然对中国经济增长有小幅负面影响,但显著促进产业结构转型,尤其会拉动电池、电机和电控行业产出增长;由于汽车保有量变化滞后于销售量变化,在当前以煤电为主的发电结构下,2030年后减排效果才能体现;当清洁电力供应比例提高,减排效果则能更早显现,经济损失也会降低。研究成果对优化新能源汽车推广政策实施效果具有重要现实意义。In the context of the rapid promotion of new energy vehicles,it is of great practical significance to explore its economic and carbon emission impacts.This paper constructs a dynamic CGE model that includes energy input nesting and residential vehicle consumption nesting,introducing a vehicle ownership accounting module and an S-shaped market penetration curve to simulate the economic and carbon emission impacts of new energy vehicle promotion.The research findings show that although the promotion of new energy vehicles has a slightly negative impact on China's economic growth,it will significantly promote the transformation of the industrial structure,especially driving the output growth of the battery,motor,and electronic control industries.Due to the lag of vehicle ownership changes behind sales changes,under the current power generation structure dominated by coal-fired power,the emission reduction effect can only be manifested after 2030.When the proportion of clean electricity supply increases,the emission reduction effect can appear earlier,and the economic loss will also be reduced.This paper is of great practical significance for optimizing the implementation effect of new energy vehicle promotion policies.

关 键 词：可计算一般均衡 新能源汽车 经济增长:能源转型 碳排放 

分 类 号：F224.9[经济管理—国民经济]