2010-2023年渭南市水痘流行特征及发病趋势预测  

Epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of varicella in Weinan from 2010 to 2023

作　　者：李丹丹 马宁[1] 庞琳 景彩梅 党真 朱妮[2] 刘玮[1] Li Dandan;Ma Ning;Pang Lin;Jing Caimei;Dang Zhen;Zhu Ni;Liu Wei(Department for Infectious Disease Control and Prevention,Weinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Weinan 714000,China;Institute for Infectious Disease Control and Prevention,Shaanxi Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Xi’an 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]渭南市疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制科,714000 [2]陕西省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所,西安710054

出　　处：《国际病毒学杂志》2025年第1期57-61,共5页International Journal of Virology

基　　金：陕西省卫生应急作业平台建设项目(2020PT-030)。

摘　　要：目的分析2010—2023年渭南市水痘流行特征,预测其发病趋势,为制定水痘有效防控措施提供依据。方法应用描述性流行病学方法对2010—2023年渭南市水痘流行特征进行统计分析,并根据2010—2023年水痘月发病数构建季节性自回归移动平均(SARIMA)最优模型,利用2024年1—9月水痘发病数检验模拟预测效果,再使用最优模型预测2024年10—12月水痘发病数。结果2010—2023年渭南市累计报告水痘16027例,年均发病率为23.62/10万;水痘发病率总体呈现先上升后下降的变化趋势,2019年达到发病高峰,2020年发病下降明显。发病呈季节性双峰分布,5月至6月和10月至次年1月为水痘发病高峰期。病例主要集中在华阴市、潼关县、华州区和临渭区。男性水痘年均发病率(25.29/10万)高于女性(21.92/10万);发病年龄主要分布在15岁以下人群,共报告12893例(80.44%);职业分布以学生(9285例,57.93%)、幼托儿童(3310例,20.65%)、散居儿童(1909例,11.91%)为主。SARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,2)_(12)为短期预测渭南市水痘发病的最优模型,残差为白噪声序列,平均绝对百分比误差MAPE为33.67%,模型拟合及预测效果较好;应用该模型预测2024年10—12月水痘发病数,结果显示将有小幅度上升趋势,但仍处于较低水平。结论SARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,2)_(12)为最优模型,可用于预测渭南市水痘短期发病趋势,为渭南市水痘防控提供科学指导依据。Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of varicella in Weinan from 2010 to 2023,and predict the trend of incidence,so as to provide a basis for formulating effective prevention and control measures for varicella.MethodsDescriptive epidemiological method were applied for statistical analysis of the epidemiological characteristics of varicella in Weinan from 2010 to 2023.The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)optimal model was established using the monthly case numbers of varicella from 2010 to 2023 and the numbers of varicella cases from January to September 2024 were used to test the effectiveness of simulatied prediction.The optimal model was then used to predict the number of varicella cases from October to December 2024.ResultsA total of 16027 cases of varicella were reported in Weinan from 2010 to 2023,with an average annual incidence rate of 23.62/100000.The incidence rate showed an overall trend of increasing at first followed by decreasing.There was a peak in 2019 and a significant decrease in 2020.The incidence of varicella presented a seasonal bimodal distribution,with the peak periods occurring from May to June and from October to the next January.Cases were mainly concentrated in Huayin city,Tongguan county,Huazhou district and Linwei district.The average annual incidence rate of varicella in males(25.29/100000)was higher than that in females(21.92/100000).For the age of onset,the cases were mainly distributed in people under 15 years old and there were 12893 case reports(80.44%).For the occupational distribution,the patients were mainly students(9285 cases,57.93%),children in nursery care(3310 cases,20.65%)and scattered children(1909 cases,11.91%).The optimal model for short-term prediction of the incidence of varicella in Weinan was SARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,2)_(12)and the residual was a white noise sequence.The mean absolute percentage error was 33.67%,indicating good model fitting and prediction effects.The model was used to predict the number of varicella cases from

关 键 词：水痘 流行特征 季节性自回归移动平均模型 预测 

分 类 号：R51[医药卫生—内科学]