中国与“一带一路”共建国家农产品出口贸易潜力测算  

Estimation of Agricultural Export Trade Potential between China and Countries along the Belt and Road Initiative Route

作　　者：汪贵超 杨志波 Wang Guichao;Yang Zhibo(Shanghai DianJi University,Shanghai 201306)

机构地区：[1]上海电机学院,上海201306

出　　处：《中国商论》2025年第6期56-59,共4页China Journal of Commerce

摘　　要：加强与“一带一路”共建国家农产品贸易是实现中国与共建国家农业可持续发展的重要举措,已成为当前世界经济发展的重要议题和学界关注的热点。本文基于2011—2023年中国和“一带一路”共建各国农产品贸易面板数据,引入拓展的贸易引力模型进行回归分析,在模型回归结果的基础上对贸易潜力进行测算。结果显示:中国农产品出口贸易潜在型和贸易拓展型国家有36个。据此,本文认为中国应根据贸易潜力来调整农产品贸易战略布局,为推动自由贸易协定签署创造更好的条件,加强与沿线国家间的基础设施建设,为农产品出口贸易增长提供动力。Strengthening agricultural product trade with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative is a crucial measure for achieving sustainable agricultural development between China and these countries,and has become an important issue in current world economic development and a focal point of academic attention.Based on panel data on agricultural product trade between China and countries along the Belt and Road from 2011 to 2023,an extended trade gravity model is introduced for regression analysis,and trade potential is estimated based on the regression results of the model.The results show that there are 36 countries with potential for expanding China’s agricultural export trade.Therefore,China should adjust its strategic layout for agricultural product trade according to trade potential,create better conditions for the signing of free trade agreements,strengthen infrastructure construction with countries along the route,and provide impetus for the growth of agricultural export trade.

关 键 词：“一带一路”共建国家 农产品出口 贸易引力模型 潜力分析 贸易协定 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F742