碳市场与能源市场溢出效应研究  

Research on Spillover Eff ects between Carbon and Energy Markets

作　　者：叶雅妮 Ye Yani(School of Economics and Management,Zhejiang A&F University,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 311300)

机构地区：[1]浙江农林大学经济管理学院,浙江杭州311300

出　　处：《中国商论》2025年第6期147-151,共5页China Journal of Commerce

摘　　要：在碳中和的时代背景下,深入研究碳市场与能源市场间的溢出效应,有助于企业优化能源配置结构、加快实现“碳达峰、碳中和”目标。本文采用TVP-VAR-DY模型,深入分析了广东碳排放权交易市场、湖北碳排放权交易市场、原油市场及煤炭市场之间的溢出效应。研究结论显示:(1)碳市场和能源市场之间存在着显著的波动溢出效应,且相较湖北碳市场,广东碳市场更易受到来自其他市场波动溢出的影响。(2)金融事件的冲击会加剧市场间的风险溢出,这种溢出呈现出时变的特征。(3)新冠疫情期间,原油市场溢出指数急剧上升。基于上述结论,本文提出了相应的策略建议,以供参考。In the context of carbon neutrality,the study of spillover effects between the carbon markets and the energy markets can help enterprises optimize their energy allocation structure and accelerate the achievement of the goal of"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality".Using the TVP-VAR-DY model,this study analyzes in depth the spillover effects among Guangdong carbon emissions trading market,Hubei carbon emissions trading market,crude oil market and coal market.The research findings indicate that:(1)there exists a significant volatility spillover effect between the carbon market and the energy market,with the Guangdong carbon market being more susceptible to spillovers from other markets compared to the Hubei carbon market;(2)financial events intensify the risk spillover among markets,and such spillovers exhibit time-varying characteristics;and(3)during the COVID-19 pandemic,the spillover index of the crude oil market surged sharply.Based on these findings,the paper offers corresponding strategic recommendations for reference.

关 键 词：碳市场 能源市场 溢出效应 TVP-VAR-DY模型 金融事件 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]