电力现货综合指数构建及其价值传导分析研究  

Construction of Composite Index in Electricity Spot Market and Analysis on Its Value Transmission

作　　者：赵栩 罗治强 谢丽荣 曹荣章 卓谷颖 许传博 刘元欣[1] 刘敦楠[1] ZHAO Xu;LUO Zhiqiang;XIE Lirong;CAO Rongzhang;ZHUO Guying;XU Chuanbo;LIU Yuanxin;LIU Dunnan(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Changping District,Beijing 102206,China;National Power Dispatch and Control Center,Xicheng District,Beijing 100031,China;NARI Group Corporation(State Grid Electric Power Research Institute),Nanjing 211106,Jiangsu Province,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京市昌平区102206 [2]国家电力调度控制中心,北京市西城区100031 [3]南瑞集团有限公司(国网电力科学研究院有限公司),江苏省南京市211106

出　　处：《现代电力》2025年第2期343-351,共9页Modern Electric Power

摘　　要：随着双碳目标的设立与电力行业碳达峰行动方案与路线的明确,电力现货交易机制不断完善,分析及预测电力现货价格数据变动成为电力市场交易过程中亟待解决的问题之一。根据国内外各类市场综合指数的编制方法和应用情况,提出衡量现货价格变动情况的现货综合指数,并对于变动结果进行解释分析,为现货市场交易提供参考;针对省间电力现货交易体系现状,基于省间电力价格综合指数建立空间价值传导指标,对电力产业链上下游传导以及资源与资本的协调衔接展开讨论。电力综合指数能够体现现货市场发展状态,反映省间电力供需传导,并具有预警作用,以电力价格衔接电力上下游产业链,形成能源资源与资本流动的互动。With the establishment of the double carbon target and the clarification of the action plan and route to achieve the carbon peak in the power industry,the electricity spot trading mechanism has been continuously improved.Consequently,the analysis and prediction of the changes in electricity spot price data has become an urgent issue to be addressed in the process of electricity market trading.Based on the compilation methods and applications of various market composite indices both domestically and internationally,a spot composite index is proposed to measure the changes in spot prices.The results are then interpreted and analyzed to provide reference for spot market trading.Additionally,considering the current situation of inter-provincial electricity spot trading system,a spatial value transmission index is established based on the inter-provincial electricity price composite index.This enables discussions on the upstream and downstream transmission of the electricity industry chain and the coordination of resources and capital based on the current situation of the inter-provincial electricity spot trading system.The comprehensive electricity index serves as the indicator of the spot market development,inter-provincial electricity supply and demand transmission,and it also provides an early warning function.Moreover,it establishes a connection between the upstream and downstream industry chains with electricity prices,forming the interaction between energy resources and capital flows.

关 键 词：电力市场 现货市场 综合指数 价值传导 省间电力现货 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]