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作 者:刘建江[1] 程杰 LIU Jianjiang;CHENG Jie
出 处:《湖南师范大学社会科学学报》2025年第2期100-111,共12页Journal of Social Science of Hunan Normal University
基 金:国家社会科学基金重点项目“百年未有之大变局下美国对华贸易政策新变化与中国对策研究”(22AJL009)。
摘 要:以美国为代表的发达经济体一度出现近40年来少有的较长时期的高通胀率,而以中国为代表的部分新兴经济体则呈现一定的通缩态势。原因在于百年未有之大变局加速演进、中美战略竞争不断升级、叠加俄乌冲突等黑天鹅事件,推动了金融危机以来发达国家再工业化引致的国际分工格局新变化,中美两大经济体的经贸关系由互补型加速向竞争型转换,传统国际分工生变,从而发达经济体赖以维系的长期低通胀基础生变。对此,需要各国认清新国际分工格局的冲击,算好全球“脱钩”“断链”对通胀治理的成本大账,推进全球通胀治理体系建设;要深刻把握新格局下中国对全球低通胀的稳定性作用;审慎跨越“泛安全化陷阱”。对中国而言,要辨识新国际分工格局下美国对华战略竞争的幕后逻辑;通过创新驱动发展战略,破解全球价值链“低端锁定”困局。Developed economies,led by the United States,have experienced a prolonged period of high inflation,rare in nearly 40 years,while some emerging economies,represented by China,are showing signs of deflation.The reasons for this lie in the accelerating global transformation,the escalating U.S.-China strategic competition,and black swan events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict.These factors have driven new changes in the international division of labor,resulting from the re-industrialization efforts of developed economies since the financial crisis.It has also caused a shift in the U.S.-China economic relationship from complementarity to competition,and altered the traditional structure of global trade.Together,these changes have led to the disruption of the long-standing low inflation foundation that once supported developed economies.In response,countries must recognize the impact of the new international division of labor,carefully assess the overall costs of global“decoupling”and“supply chain disruptions”on inflation control,and work toward building a global inflation management framework.It is also crucial to understand China's stabilizing role in maintaining low inflation under the new global structure and to avoid falling into the“over-securitization trap”.For China,it is essential to identify the underlying strategic logic behind the U.S.'s intensified economic competition under the evolving international division of labor.Additionally,China should leverage an innovation-driven development strategy to break free from“the low-end lock-in”dilemma in global value chains.
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