中国县域人口高龄化时空演化特征及影响因素  

Spatio-temporal evolutionary characteristics of county population advanced age in China and influencing factors

作　　者：张凤 唐业清 徐洋 郭乘行 邹璐 刘文新[2] 刘世薇 Zhang Feng;Tang Yeqing;Xu Yang;Guo Chenghang;Zou Lu;Liu Wenxin;Liu Shiwei(School of Geographical Sciences,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China;Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Changchun 130102,Jilin,China;Institute of Tourism,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China)

机构地区：[1]西南大学地理科学学院,重庆400715 [2]中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所,吉林长春130102 [3]西南大学旅游研究所,重庆400715

出　　处：《地理科学》2025年第3期556-566,共11页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(42171175);西南大学创新研究2035先导计划(SWUPilotPlan031);西南大学青年团队专项资金(SWU-XJPY202307)资助

摘　　要：以县域为基本研究单元,运用2000年、2010年和2020年全国人口普查等数据,采用高龄化系数、高龄人口集中度、空间自相关等指标方法,研究中国县域人口高龄化的时空演化特征及影响因素。结果表明:①中国高龄人口规模和比重都呈上升趋势,高龄化速度加快,高龄化趋势日益突出;人口高龄化存在着较大的城乡差异,城镇高龄化程度高于乡村。②空间上东部沿海地区高龄化水平高于中西部内陆地区;人口高龄化空间格局未突破“胡焕庸线”;高龄化在性别上以及民族与非民族地域上表现为较大差异;高龄化在空间上具有较强相关性,空间聚集特征日益显著。③近20 a来,中国县域人口高龄化的影响因素从人口和自然因素为主向人口、自然、社会经济多因素转变。The elderly population is emerging as the fastest-growing demographic group within China’s aging population.This article utilizes data from national population censuses conducted in 2000,2010 and 2020 at the county level.Using indicators such as the aging coefficient,concentration of the elderly population,and spatial auto-correlation,the study aims to examine the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the aging population in China,as well as its influencing factors.The conclusions are as follows:1)The scale and proportion of the elderly population in China are increasing,marked by an accelerated aging rate and a notable aging trend.There is a significant urban-rural difference in the aging of the population,with urban areas experienced higher levels of aging compared to rural areas.2)In terms of space,the aging level in the eastern coastal areas is higher than that in the central and western inland areas.The spatial pattern of aging population has not broken through the Hu Line,and there is a certain degree of stability.Additionally,notable differences in ageing exist in terms of gender,and between ethnicity and non-ethnicity groups.Aging demonstrates strong spatial correlation,with increasingly prominent spatial clustering characteristics.3)In the past 20 years,the influencing factors of aging population in Chinese counties have shifted from demographic and natural factors to encompass multiple factors including population,nature,social and economic factors.

关 键 词：人口高龄化 县域 空间误差模型 中国 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学]