浙江省乡村地域人口迁移的空间特征及转型发展效应  

Spatial characteristics of rural population migration and its impact on rural transformation and development of Zhejiang Province

作　　者：佟伟铭 郑金辉 郭加新 蒋语欣 Tong Weiming;Zheng Jinhui;Guo Jiaxin;Jiang Yuxin(School of Economics,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310023,Zhejiang,China;Institute for Industrial System Modernization,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310023,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江工业大学经济学院,浙江杭州310023 [2]浙江工业大学现代化产业体系研究院,浙江杭州310023

出　　处：《地理科学》2025年第3期578-589,共12页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：教育部人文社科研究项目(23YJC790127);浙江省哲学社会科学规划课题(23YJZX21YB);浙江省社科联研究课题(2025N086);国家自然科学基金项目(42071159)资助。

摘　　要：乡村转型发展是实现乡村振兴的重要抓手,乡村地域人口迁移直接影响着乡村转型发展的进程。本文从乡村地域人口迁入、人口迁出和人口回流3种迁移类型建构乡村地域人口迁移与乡村转型发展间的理论分析框架,基于浙江省乡村地域人口迁移与乡村转型发展问卷调研,借助GIS分析、空间自相关和多元线性计量模型,探究乡村地域人口迁移空间特征及转型发展效应。研究发现:①浙江省乡村地域人口迁移呈现出显著的空间分异特征,人口迁入、人口迁出、人口回流规模具有明显的差异,并呈现出“自南向北、自东向西”阶梯式逐渐增强的空间格局。②浙江省乡村地域人口迁出和人口回流均具有正的空间相关性,存在高值集聚或低值集聚现象,环杭州湾城市群出现乡村地域人口迁移高值聚类区域,而浙西南的边缘地带出现乡村地域人口迁移低值聚类区域。③乡村地域迁移人口的社会经济特征、迁移特征、迁移目的以及对乡村转型发展的贡献与促进作用是影响乡村转型发展的主要因素;人口迁入、人口迁出和人口回流能够在不同程度上影响乡村转型发展。The rural transformation and development is a crucial lever for achieving rural revitalization,and the population migration of rural areas directly impacts the trajectory of rural transformation and development.This paper constructs a theoretical analytical framework for examining the relationship between the population migration of rural areas and the rural transformation and development,considering 3 migration types in terms of the migration-in,migration-out,and migration return.Based on a questionnaire survey of the population migration of rural areas and the rural transformation and development in Zhejiang Province,this article adopts the GIS analysis,the spatial autocorrelation,and multiple linear regression models to investigate spatial characteristics of the population migration of rural areas and its effects on the transformation and development.First,the result shows that the population migration of rural areas in Zhejiang Province has a significant spatial differentiation with 3 patterns in terms of the migration-in,migration-out,and migration return.A spatial pattern characterized by a gradual enhancement from south to north and from east to west is observed.Second,both the migrationout and migration return in Zhejiang Province show positive spatial autocorrelations,which indicates the presence of high-value clustering or low-value clustering.High-value clustering areas of population migration of rural areas are observed around the Hangzhou Bay urban agglomeration.In contrast,low-value clustering areas are identified in the southwestern periphery of Zhejiang.Third,socioeconomic characteristics of the migration population of rural areas,migration patterns,migration objectives,and their contributions and facilitations of the rural transformation and development are main factors that influence the rural transformation and development.Moreover,the migration-in,migration-out,and migration return exert varying degrees of influence on the rural transformation and development.

关 键 词：乡村地域 人口迁移 乡村转型发展 浙江省 

分 类 号：K901[历史地理—人文地理学]