考虑水系三维连通特征的湘江流域洪水风险评价  

Considering characteristics of three-dimensional river system connectivity on flood risk assessment in the Xiangjiang River Basin

作　　者：杨柳[1,2,3] 刘丹 冯畅 项瑾 彭璐璐 潘光波 Yang Liu;Liu Dan;Feng Chang;Xiang Jin;Peng Lulu;Pan Guangbo(Faculty of Geography and Tourism,Hengyang Normal University,Hengyang 421002,Hunan,China;Research Base of Environmental Education and Sustainable Development in Hunan Province,Hengyang 421002,Hunan,China;Digital Inheritance of Cultural Heritage in Ancient Villages and Towns,Collaborative Innovation Center,Hengyang 421002,Hunan,China)

机构地区：[1]衡阳师范学院地理与旅游学院,湖南衡阳421002 [2]湖南省环境教育与可持续发展研究基地,湖南衡阳421002 [3]古村古镇文化遗产数字化传承协同创新中心,湖南衡阳421002

出　　处：《地理科学》2025年第3期627-639,共13页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41901026,42001024);湖南省自然科学基金项目(2025JJ50199,2022JJ40015)资助。

摘　　要：针对传统洪水风险评价中考虑距水远近或部分水系数量指标而未考虑水系连通性对区域洪水风险的影响问题,本研究建立水系连通性三维度综合评价体系,基于此构建考虑水系连通性的洪水风险评价指标体系,采用更为客观的博弈论组合赋权法确定最优权重,自然与行政边界结合应用地图学中范围法绘制专题地图,并以湘江流域为例,研究基于水系连通性相较于传统洪水风险评价体系是否更具可行性与优越性。结果表明:①湘江流域的结构连通性和综合连通性自南向北增强,功能连通性北部水系也强于南部;干流水力连通性高于支流,下游支流水力连通性高于上中游支流。②流域内洪水风险整体从南向北递增,中风险区和较低风险区面积占59.25%,其中,中等风险区集中于湘江流域北部,及湘江流域西南部和南部中部地区,面积占25.01%;低与较低风险区集中于南部山区及西部边缘区,面积分别占22.48%、34.24%;高与较高风险区集中于湘江下游,面积分别占9.34%、8.94%。③传统洪水风险评价低估了流域上游地区洪水风险,而高估了下游地区的洪水风险。结合湘江流域近年实际洪灾情况发现考虑水系连通性相较于传统方式刻画洪水风险评价结果更为客观细腻,能进一步提高洪水风险评价的科学性。The traditional flood risk evaluation takes into account the effects of regional flood risk solely,based on proximity to water or the number of partial river network systems,without considering the impact of river network system connectivity.To address the problem,this study proposes a three-dimensional comprehensive evaluation system for assessing the connectivity within a river network system.The flood risk assessment index system,which considers the connectivity of river systems,is developed based on this framework.Furthermore,a more objective game-theoretic combination weighting method is employed to determine the optimal weights,and the cartographic method for thematic mapping is applied by integrating natural and administrative boundaries.In the case of the Xiangjiang River Basin,this study investigates the feasibility and superiority of the system compared to the conventional flood risk assessment approach.The findings indicate that:1)The structural connectivity and comprehensive connectivity of the Xiangjiang River Basin increase from south to north,and the functional connectivity of the northern rivers is stronger than that of the southern rivers.The hydraulic connectivity of the main stream is higher than that of the tributaries,and the hydraulic connectivity of the downstream tributaries is higher than that of the upper and middle reaches.2)The overall flood risk in the Xiangjiang River Basin increases from south to north,and the medium risk area and the lower risk area account for 59.25%.The medium risk area is concentrated in the northern part of the Xiangjiang River Basin,and the southwest and central part of the south of the Xiangjiang River Basin,accounting for 25.01%.The low and lower risk areas are concentrated in the southern mountainous area and the western edge area,accounting for 22.48%and 34.24%respectively.The high and higher risk areas are concentrated in the lower reaches of the Xiangjiang River,accounting for 9.34%and 8.94%respectively.3)The traditional flood risk assessment underestima

关 键 词：洪水风险评价 水系连通 博弈论组合赋权法 城镇化 湘江流域 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]