鄱阳湖流域地表水域对干旱热浪复合事件的响应关系及其空间格局  

Response and spatial patterns of surface waters in the Poyang Lake Basin to compound drought-heatwave events

作　　者：钟文涛 丁明军[1,2] 王勇刚 樊骜 Zhong Wentao;Ding Mingjun;Wang Yonggang;Fan Ao(School of Geography and Environment,Jiangxi Normal University,Nanchang 330022,Jiangxi,China;Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research Ministry of Education,Nanchang 330022,Jiangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]江西师范大学地理与环境学院,江西南昌330022 [2]鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室,江西南昌330022

出　　处：《地理科学》2025年第3期663-674,共12页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42161021);江西师范大学研究生创新基金(YJS2023011)资助。

摘　　要：本文基于覆盖鄱阳湖流域的Landsat卫星和气象站点的长时序数据,结合Mann-Kendall趋势分析、Sen斜率估计等数理统计方法,对1987—2019年鄱阳湖流域地表水域变化特征及其对干热事件的响应特征进行量化研究。结果表明:①研究时段内,鄱阳湖流域的干热事件发生频率增加约0.02次/a,持续天数增加0.13 d/a,烈度增加0.09/a;②持续性水域、季节性水域、临时性水域和平均水域面积分别以每年16.85 km^(2)、21.56 km^(2)、13.22 km^(2)和31.76 km^(2)的速率萎缩,尽管持续性水域数量每年增加3.11个,但临时性水域数量变化不明显;③持续性水域、临时性水域和平均水域面积的变化与干热事件的发生频率、持续天数及烈度呈显著负相关,相关系数均小于−0.5(P<0.01),水域对干热事件的响应敏感区主要位于流域的西部和中部地区。The increasing frequency of compound drought-heatwave events poses a significant threat to water security in the Poyang Lake Basin.However,the response characteristics of surface water bodies to these events remain unclear,hindering the effective utilization of regional water resources.This study used long-term data from Landsat satellites and meteorological stations,employed mathematical statistical methods such as Mann-Kendall trend analysis and Sen’s slope estimation to quantify changes in water bodies in the Poyang Lake Basin from 1987 to 2019 and their responses to drought and heatwave events.The results indicate that:1)In the study period,the frequency of compound drought-heatwave events increased by approximately 0.02 events per year,with duration and intensity rising by 0.13 d/a and 0.09/a,respectively.2)During this period,the areas of permanent,seasonal,temporary,and average water bodies showed decreasing trends at rates of−16.85 km^(2)/a,−21.56 km^(2)/a,−13.22 km^(2)/a,and−31.76 km^(2)/a,respectively.Notably,the number of permanent water bodies increased significantly,with an annual growth of 3.11 water bodies on average,while the number of temporary water bodies showed no significant change.Water body shrinkage was primarily concentrated in the western part of the basin,while increases in the number of water bodies were focused in the northeastern region.3)Changes in permanent,temporary,and average water areas were significantly negatively correlated with the frequency,duration,and intensity of drought-heat events,with correlation coefficients less than−0.5(P<0.05).Sensitive response areas were primarily located in the western and central parts of the basin.This study provides valuable insights for water resource management and disaster mitigation in the Poyang Lake Basin.

关 键 词：干旱热浪复合事件 地表水域 响应特征 鄱阳湖流域 

分 类 号：P332[天文地球—水文科学]