海口市海岸带土地利用变化及其驱动力机制分析  

Land use change and its driving force mechanism in coastal zone of Haikou City

作　　者：何伟倩 马东来 刘晓静 He Weiqian;Ma Donglai;Liu Xiaojing(School of Geography and Environmental Sciences,Hainan Normal University,Haikou 570100,Hainan,China;Key Laboratory of Tropical Island Land Surface Processes and Environmental Changes of Hainan Province,Haikou 570100,Hainan,China)

机构地区：[1]海南师范大学地理与环境科学学院,海南海口570100 [2]海南省热带海岛地表过程与环境变化重点实验室,海南海口570100

出　　处：《地理科学》2025年第3期675-685,共11页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：海南省自然科学基金青年项目(421QN0884,424QN251)、海南省自然科学基金高层次人才项目(422RC666)资助。

摘　　要：以海口市海岸带为研究区,选取1987年、2004年、2021年3期遥感影像,基于随机森林法对遥感影像进行监督分类,分析35 a间海口市海岸带土地利用时空分布变化及其变化的速度、结构等,揭示社会经济和自然环境对海口市海岸带土地利用变化的驱动机制。结果表明:①1987—2021年海口市海岸带综合土地利用动态演变剧烈,其中建设用地扩张显著(增加189.16 km^(2)),耕地锐减最多(减少81.50 km^(2)),水域及水利设施变化最小。②海口市海岸带时空分布变化明显,建设用地从中部向东西两侧延伸,耕地流失集中于西部,草地分布在南渡江东岸且呈波动减少;土地转换呈现单项集聚特征,有77%的转出面积流向建设用地,草地、林地、耕地转出面积分别超过了转入面积的1.73、2.37和2.88倍。③海口市海岸带在单因子驱动中,1987—2004年的最大驱动力经济指标(GDP)主导地位被2004—2021年的气候因子(降水)取代;交互驱动中,自然−社会因子协同效应显著增强(驱动力指数由1987年的0.535增高到2021年的0.844)。研究结果可为海口市海岸带生态环境保护和土地资源规划提供科学依据。This paper takes the coastal zone of Haikou as the research area,selects remote sensing images from 1987,2004 and 2021,and uses the random forest method to supervise the classification of remote sensing images to analyze the changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of land use in the coastal zone of Haikou over the past 35 years,as well as the speed and structure of the changes,and reveals the driving mechanism of social economy and natural environment on the land use changes in the coastal zone of Haikou.The results show that:1)From 1987 to 2021,the dynamic evolution of comprehensive land use in the coastal zone of Haikou was drastic,among which the construction land expanded significantly(increased by 189.16 km^(2)),the cultivated land decreased the most(decreased by 81.50 km^(2)),and the water area and water conservancy facilities changed the least.2)The temporal and spatial distribution of the coastal zone of Haikou City has changed significantly.Construction land extends from the central part to the east and west sides,cultivated land loss is concentrated in the west,and grassland is distributed on the east bank of the Nandu River and fluctuates and decreases;land conversion shows a single-item agglomeration feature,with 77%of the transferred-out area flowing to construction land,and the transferred-out areas of grassland,forest land,and cultivated land are 1.73,2.37,and 2.88 times the transferred-in areas,respectively.3)In the singlefactor driving force of the coastal zone of Haikou City,the dominant position of the largest driving force economic indicator(GDP)from 1987 to 2004 was replaced by the climate factor(precipitation)from 2004 to 2021,and the influence of road proximity decreased by 90%;in the interactive driving force,the synergistic effect of natural-social factors was significantly enhanced(the driving force index increased from 0.535 in 1987 to 0.844 in 2021).The research results can provide a scientific basis for the ecological environment protection and land resource planning of the coastal

关 键 词：海岸带 土地利用 随机森林 地理探测器 

分 类 号：K90[历史地理—人文地理学]