扩大货物进口对中国县域就业的影响  

The Impact of Expanding Goods Import on Employment in Chinese Counties

作　　者：李文文 郎丽华[1] 张成 LI Wenwen;LANG Lihua;ZHANG Cheng(School of Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China;Faculty of Applied Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学经济学院,北京100070 [2]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院,北京102488

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2025年第4期33-42,共10页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“新发展格局下中国区域间循环潜力的测度、影响及实现路径研究”(22CJL016)。

摘　　要：文章使用偏离份额方法构建县域扩大货物进口指标,使用全国人口普查分县资料数据构建广义双重差分模型,实证检验扩大货物进口对中国县域就业的影响。研究发现,扩大最终品进口对中国县域就业总量没有显著影响,扩大中间品进口可以显著提高县域就业总量和劳动参与率,增加第二产业就业规模。机制分析发现,中间品进口通过提高全要素生产率和进口中间品数量,促进就业规模扩张。异质性分析发现,中间品进口能促进制造业和建筑业的就业规模扩张,抑制金融业的就业规模;中间品进口能促进生产和运输设备操作人员的就业规模扩张;在行业多元化程度高和非国有企业比重高的县域对就业规模的促进作用更强。研究结论为中国进一步降低进口关税,扩大中间品进口以及鼓励支持民营企业发展,促进就业扩容提质提供一定的政策启示。This article constructs an index for expanding goods import in counties using the shift-share method,and establishes a generalized difference-in-differences model using the national population census information and data by county,to empirically examine the impact of expanding goods import on employment in Chinese counties.According to the research findings,expanding the output product import does not have significant impact on the overall employment level in China′s counties.However,expanding the input product import can significantly boost the overall employment level and labor participation rate in counties,and increase the scale of employment in the secondary industry.The mechanism analysis reveals that the import of input products boosts the employment scale expansion by enhancing total factor productivity and increasing the quantity of imported input products.The heterogeneity analysis reveals that the import of input products can boost the employment expansion in the manufacturing and construction sectors while restrain the employment scale in the financial sector;it can also boost the employment of production and transportation equipment operators;and it has stronger driving effect on the employment in counties with a higher degree of industry diversification and a higher proportion of non-state-owned enterprises.The research findings provide valuable policy insights for further reducing import tariffs,expanding the import of input products,encouraging and supporting the development of private enterprises and enhancing the employment expansion in China.

关 键 词：进口关税减让 劳动力市场 进口投入品 进口产出品 县域就业 

分 类 号：F752.61[经济管理—国际贸易] F249.2[经济管理—产业经济]