城市新质生产力的时空演变格局及收敛性分析——基于260个地级市的实证测度分析  

Spatiotemporal Evolution Patterns and Convergence Analysis ofUrban New Quality Productivity——Empirical Analysis Based on 260 Prefecture-level Cities

作　　者：孙欣[1] 高孟焕 SUN Xin;GAO Meng-huan(School of Statistics and Applied Mathematics,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233010,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院,蚌埠233010

出　　处：《青岛大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第1期141-148,153,共9页Journal of Qingdao University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(批准号:22BTJ048)资助。

摘　　要：基于对中国城市新质生产力的内涵理论分析,从劳动者、劳动对象和劳动资料3个维度出发构建了中国城市新质生产力综合评价指标体系,利用2011—2021年中国260个地级市的面板数据,采用熵值法、马尔科夫链、空间β收敛等方法对中国城市新质生产力的发展水平和动态演变进行了测度与分析。研究结果表明,空间马尔科夫转移概率矩阵显示中国城市新质生产力类型转移具有稳定性,并且存在“俱乐部趋同”现象,地理背景在新质生产力类型转移过程中有着重要作用;从长期演变趋势的预测来看,中国城市新质生产力的未来发展前景较为乐观,新质生产力分布呈现向高值集中趋势;全国城市及各区域新质生产力均存在空间绝对β收敛和空间条件β收敛,中部地区在控制变量城镇化率、对外开放、基础设施和政府干预的影响下表现出不同的空间效应。Based on the theoretical analysis of urban new quality productivity in China,a comprehensive evaluation index system constructed from three dimensions of laborers,labor objects,and means of labor was proposed.Panel data from 260 prefecture-level cities in China from 2011 to 2021 were analyzed using methods such as the entropy method,Markov chains,and spatialβ-convergence to evaluate the development level and dynamic evolution of new quality productivity.Results show that the spatial Markov transition probability matrix reveals the stability of transitions between different types of new quality productivity in China,along with the phenomenon of“club convergence”.Geographic contexts play a significant role in type transitions of new quality productivity.From the perspective of long-term evolution trends,the future development prospects for new quality productivity in China appear optimistic,with a tendency toward a concentration in high-value regions.At both the national and regional levels,spatial absoluteβ-convergence and spatial conditionalβ-convergence were observed.In the central region,spatial effects varied under the influence of control variables,including urbanization rate,openness to the outside world,infrastructure,and government intervention.

关 键 词：新质生产力 马尔科夫链 空间收敛 时空演变格局 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]