黄河三角洲极端气温变化特征及对农业的影响  

Characteristics of Extreme Temperature Change in the Yellow River Delta and Its Impact on Agriculture

作　　者：田世芹 刘昭武 TIAN Shiqin;LIU Zhaowu(Binzhou Meteorological Bureau,Binzhou 256600,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]滨州市气象局,山东滨州256600

出　　处：《山西师范大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第1期86-90,共5页Journal of Shanxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：山东省气象局科研项目“黄河三角洲地区雹云生命期多普勒雷达特征参量和概念模型研究”(2020sdqxm21)。

摘　　要：选取黄河三角洲地区典型城市滨州,根据1971年—2020年滨州国家气象观测站气象观测资料,利用最小二乘法和Morlet小波分析对极端气温进行趋势分析和周期分析,选用R/S分析法对极端气温事件进行预测.结果表明:(1)黄河三角洲地区极端高温事件呈增加趋势,极端低温事件呈减少趋势.(2)极端高温事件和极端低温事件均存在着28年的主变化周期,且该振荡周期自1990年后表现最为显著.(3)未来黄河三角洲地区极端高温和极端低温事件均将持续增加,其中夏夜日数、霜冻日数和冰冻日数增加较为显著,且持续性较强.(4)极端气温的变化会引发相应的自然灾害,会影响农作物的产量和品质,同时霜冻日数和冰冻日数的逐年上升会加重该地区农作物的冻害事件.Taking Binzhou,a typical city in Yellow River Delta,as an example,according to the meteorological observation data of Binzhou National Meteorological Observation Station from 1971 to 2020,the trend and change period of extreme temperature were analyzed using the least square method and Morlet wavelet analysis,and the extreme temperature was predicted using the R/S analysis method.The results show that:①The extreme high temperature events in Yellow River Delta are increasing,and the extreme low temperature events are decreasing.②Both extreme high temperature events and extreme low temperature events have a main variation period of 28 years,and this oscillation period has been most significant since 1990.③In the future,both extreme high temperature and extreme low temperature events in Yellow River Delta will continue to increase,among which the number of summer nights,frost days and freezing days will increase significantly and continuously.④The changes in extreme temperatures can trigger corresponding natural disasters and affect the yield and quality of crops.At the same time,the increasing number of frost days and freezing days is bound to exacerbate the freezing damage events of crops in the area.

关 键 词：黄河三角洲 极端气温 变化特征 小波分析 R/S分析 自然灾害 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]