绿色发展背景下的中国氮肥需求  

Nitrogen Fertilizer Demand in China in the Context of Green Development

作　　者：李婷玉 姚澜 钟于秀 王怡 李伟芳 徐洋[2,3] 李冬佳[2] 刘蕊 李贝 张卫峰 LI Tingyu;YAO Lan;ZHONG Yuxiu;WANG Yi;LI Weifang;XU Yang;LI Dongjia;LIU Rui;LI Bei;ZHANG Weifeng(College of Tropical Agriculture and Forestry,Hainan University,Haikou 570228,China;College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193,China;National Agro-Tech Extension and Service Center,Beijing 100125,China)

机构地区：[1]海南大学热带农林学院,海口570228 [2]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193 [3]全国农业技术推广服务中心,北京100125

出　　处：《土壤学报》2025年第2期308-321,共14页Acta Pedologica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFD2300404);国家自然科学基金项目(42277234);湖北省重点研发计划项目(2023BBB147);海南特色作物科学施肥技术体系创建及应用项目(RH2300006505)资助。

摘　　要：氮肥是粮食安全的重要保障,但过量施用会导致活性氮排放,造成严重的生态环境问题。在全面推动绿色发展的新时期,明确我国氮肥合理需求与化学氮肥减量路径对农业转型升级具有重要意义。本文综合分析了我国31种主要作物的产量潜力和氮素需求,并结合不同作物在优化管理下的氮素合理盈余水平,确定了我国在满足粮食安全和生态可持续发展要求下的氮肥合理需求。绿色发展背景下我国氮素养分合理需求总量为3100万t,在不改变氮素投入结构的情况下,化学氮肥合理需求量为1904万t,占总需求的61%。未来我国氮肥合理化应用调整路径应考虑氮肥定额、提高有机养分投入及替代比例、增加豆科作物种植比例提高生物固氮潜力,以及优化氮肥产品结构等方面。在此路径下,化学氮肥减量潜力为26%~53%。如在合理的氮素投入情况下(氮肥定额),通过提高有机养分替代比例到适宜水平40%,可将化学氮肥需求量下调至1428万t,减量潜力为44%。在此基础上,进一步提高豆科作物种植面积(增加大豆-玉米轮作比例),化学氮肥合理需求量可下调至1360万t,减量潜力为47%。最后,进一步通过优化氮肥产品结构,我国化学氮肥合理需求可进一步降低至1213万t,减量潜力达53%。本文对氮肥合理需求的评估和氮肥绿色发展路径的探索将有助于实施更科学的管理体系,并为我国氮肥产业升级提供科学支持。Nitrogen fertilizer is essential for food security,but its excessive application leads to reactive nitrogen emissions,causing severe environmental issues.In the new era of promoting green development,clarifying China’s reasonable nitrogen fertilizer demand and pathways for reducing chemical nitrogen fertilizer is crucial for agricultural transformation and upgrading.This study comprehensively analyzes the yield potential and nitrogen demand of 31 major crops in China and determines the reasonable nitrogen fertilizer demand under the conditions of food security and ecological sustainability by combining the nitrogen surplus levels under optimized management for different crops.Under the green development framework,the total reasonable nitrogen nutrient demand in China is 31 million tons,with a reasonable chemical nitrogen fertilizer demand of 19.04 million tons,accounting for 61%of the total demand.Future pathways for rational nitrogen fertilizer application in China should consider nitrogen fertilizer quota,increasing organic nutrient input and substitution ratio,increasing the planting proportion of leguminous crops to enhance biological nitrogen fixation potential,and optimizing nitrogen fertilizer product structure.Under these pathways,the potential for reducing chemical nitrogen fertilizer ranges from 26%to 53%.Specifically,under reasonable nitrogen input conditions(nitrogen quota),increasing the organic nutrient substitution ratio to 40%could lower the chemical nitrogen fertilizer demand to 14.28 million tons,with a reduction potential of 44%.Further increasing the planting area of leguminous crops(enhancing soybean-maize rotation ratio)could reduce the chemical nitrogen fertilizer demand to 13.6 million tons,with a reduction potential of 47%.Finally,optimizing the nitrogen fertilizer product structure could further reduce the reasonable chemical nitrogen fertilizer demand to 12.13 million tons,with a reduction potential of 53%.This study’s evaluation of reasonable nitrogen fertilizer demand and explorat

关 键 词：氮肥定额 氮肥合理需求 绿色发展 发展路径 减量潜力 

分 类 号：S143.1[农业科学—肥料学] S-01[农业科学—农业基础科学]