2025年中国经济形势展望与政策预期  

Prospect of China’s Economic Situation and Policy Expectations in 2025

作　　者：刘伟 苏剑[2] LIU Wei;SU Jian(School of Economics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;School of Economics,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院,北京100872 [2]北京大学经济学院,北京100871

出　　处：《北京交通大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第1期26-37,共12页Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University(Social Sciences Edition)

摘　　要：2024年中国GDP同比增长5.0%,经济运行“总体平稳、稳中有进”,顺利完成年初制定的5%左右增速目标。展望2025年,全国人口减少、市场预期偏弱、支柱产业调整、地缘政治风险、能源格局变动等国内外因素仍将影响中国经济发展。中国经济自然走势将是供给、需求双收缩的格局,且需求收缩大于供给,整体依然低于潜在水平。房地产风险、地方债务风险、汇率及货币风险、贸易摩擦风险等将成为未来中国经济发展的潜在风险点。鉴于此,2025年的政策目标仍需以需求端作为主要发力点,同时,对供给端的稳定运行和市场环境的持续改善提供必要的支持,宏观调控政策组合应该以需求、供给双扩张为主,以市场环境管理为辅。In 2024,China’s GDP grew by 5.0%year-on-year.The economy achieved a stable performance while at the same time secured progress,successfully achieving the growth target of around 5 percent set at the beginning of the year.Looking ahead to 2025,domestic and foreign factors such as declining national population,weak market expectations,adjustments in pillar industries,geopolitical risks,and changes in the energy landscape will continue to affect China’s economic development.The natural trend of the China’s economy will be a pattern of contraction in both supply and demand,with the contraction in demand being more significant than that in supply,and the overall economic level remaining below its potential.Risks in the real estate sector,local government debt,exchange rates and currency,as well as trade frictions,will become potential risk points for China’s future economic development.Therefore,the policy objectives in 2025 still need to focus mainly on the demand-side.Meanwhile,necessary support should be provided for the stable operation of the supply-side and the continuous improvement of the market environment.The macroeconomic policy mix should be mainly dual expansion of demand and supply,supplemented by market environment management.

关 键 词：2025年经济展望 经济安全 自然走势 政策目标 宏观调控 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]